Pending Injury News: Herro, Edgecombe, Clayton Jr., Kuminga, G. Allen, Portis, Poeltl
The Edge: Stack Heat
Tonight, we get a gross slate with almost no value outside of Miami. Let’s get into it!
The Heat draw an elite matchup at home against the Wizards, who rank 6th in pace and 29th in points allowed per game. Bam Adebayo has a great matchup versus a Wizards team that has struggled against big men all year and should dominate minutes with Ware out. Tyler Herro has scored 41 and 64 fantasy points in the last 2 games. He sees a big usage boost with Powell and Wiggins out, and if he is scratched after being a late questionable add, it just further solidifies Bam here with everyone else out. Simone Fontecchio is another great option. He should also strongly benefit from any blowout run, and would probably be counted on for regular rotation minutes without Herro too; he projects as the best point-per-dollar play on the slate, so if you’re looking for cheap value, he is probably your guy. Myron Gardner and Dru Smith are also viable options who will have some rotation minutes as well, and one likely starts to be even better. Kasparas Jakucionis was given the entire fourth quarter when these teams played a month ago and responded with a big line, and if you wanted to build for a straight blowout, he would be set to gain a lot from that as well, as he’ll also still be the direct backup for Mitchell.
Jalen Johnson is our favorite superstar on tonight’s slate. He has scored at least 55 fantasy points in 8 of the last 12 games and is only $10,500 on DraftKings. He is by far the best spend-up on the slate in a great matchup versus Dallas. Dyson Daniels is also viable tonight; he has had 32+ DK points in six straight games.
Marcus Sasser is a really solid option tonight at his sub-$4k price tag. Caris LeVert and Ausar Thompson are out tonight, so he should see 20+ minutes. There’s also a really high chance this game gets out of hand, and if it does, Sasser will see some blowout run and should easily exceed his salary-based expectations, making him one of our favorite cheap options on the slate.
The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George tonight, making them an interesting spot to attack despite projections not loving anyone due to them all being priced up. Quentin Grimes has had a usage rate of 20% over the last 3 games and has averaged 36 minutes during that stretch. He should be one of the top options offensively. Cameron Payne sat out the whole 4th quarter of last night’s blowout, but he still played 27 minutes and scored 27 fantasy points. If he plays 30+ minutes, he should have no problem exceeding salary-based expectations. VJ is also questionable, so if he is out, both of these guys will see pretty big bumps in projections.
Danny Wolf is a solid option for Brooklyn tonight, coming off a great performance last night, where he had 32 DK points. He also took 12 shots in that game and was one rebound from a double-double bonus.
With KPJ out for the Bucks, Ousmane Dieng is projected to start and play 30 minutes. He hasn’t had the best per-minute numbers this season, but he’s already had a few ceiling games. At his price tag on a pretty gross slate, he feels like an easy click.
Victor Wembanyama is always worth a play at sub-10% ownership. He is truly matchup-proof, and the only thing limiting him now is minutes, but we think tonight he won’t be limited at all in this must-see game versus Boston. Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox are both decent options due to the game environment, but we would be at a max of one of those two guys.
Good luck, everyone!