Optimal Plays: Davis, James, Haliburton, Butler (FD), Siakam, Gobert, Russell, Reaves (FD), Nesmith, McConnell (DK), Nembhard, Smith (DK)
GPP Plays: Antetokounmpo, Edwards, Curry, Holmgren, Jal. Williams, Turner, Jackson-Davis (DK), McDaniels (DK), Toppin (DK)
Top Game Stacks: OKC/MIL, IND/LAL
Pending Injury News: James, Edwards, Gobert, Mobley, Ca. Martin, Jaquez
With March Madness in full effect, it might go overlooked that we have 4 potentially competitive and exciting NBA games on tap this evening, featuring 8 teams that are all currently in their respective playoff hunts, with each team needing to win to maintain or improve their position in the standings. With that said we are going to be providing a breakdown of each game for you so let’s dive in!
CLE/MIA
We will start with probably the least exciting game on the slate between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat. This game features a gross 202.5 total along with a 4.5 point spread. This should come as no surprise given they both play in the bottom 5 of pace while ranking in the top 8 in defensive efficiency. While we really aren’t interested in this game for stacking purposes, there are some players worth a look to fill out your lineups though we won’t be prioritizing any of them given the game environment.
Cleveland will once again be without Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus which should elevate the playing time and opportunity for Caris LeVert. LeVert has seen over 37 minutes in each of his last 3 games, which included a matchup against these same Heat, where he went for 45 fantasy points. He is second on the team in usage at 23% and has 50+ point upside. Darius Garland leads the team in usage with Mitchell off the court, at 26% and has been logging heavy minutes while they have been shorthanded. The matchup is below average but he managed 35 fantasy points against the Heat four days ago and the combination of minutes and usage make him an interesting GPP option on a small slate. Jarrett Allen is another player with a tough matchup on paper. He did torch Miami two games ago but be mindful Bam Adebayo was not playing. He is in consideration as a GPP option, and would get a boost if Mobley were to miss, but we wouldn’t prioritize him this evening.
On the Miami side, similar to Cleveland, the only players we have any real interest in are the “studs” in Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Terry Rozier. Jimmy stepped up last meeting against the Cavs, while Bam was out, and put up over 50 fantasy points in 37 minutes. With Bam back, he will certainly cede some of that usage, however, we are trending toward playoff Jimmy and Miami needs to win games to keep pace in the East. Speaking of Bam, he has missed all 3 matchups against the Cavs this season and didn’t have much luck against them last season either. Still we know he is capable of having big games and this is purely an ownership play. Projected for under 13% on both sites, you won’t find many GPP options that low owned on a 4 game slate. Terry Rozier hasn’t quite had the production that he did over in Charlotte but he has averaged around 34 minutes per game in a Heat uniform and should continue to have a bulk of the ball handling responsibilities with Herro out. Like Jarrett Allen on the Cavs side, Rozier is a guy in a tough matchup that we wouldn’t prioritize by any means but works if you land him as a last spot in for your GPP builds this evening.
OKC/MIL
Next we have a matchup of two really good teams that are amongst the top in their respective conferences. This game has the 2nd highest total of the slate at 232.5 points and a spread of just 2.5 with the Bucks being favorites. There’s not a ton of ownership gravitating to this game as there’s no one currently projecting for over 20% on either site other than Dort on FanDuel. This game has a lot of potential with the total and the pace both of these teams play as they’re both in the top 10 in pace of play.
The OKC side presents a lot of solid options for GPPs as there’s no real chalk. The Thunder ranks 9th in pace and they have an implied team total of 115.5 points. Chet Holmgren has had a great rookie season so far and would be a lock for ROY in almost any other year. He’s recorded three straight double-doubles and is averaging 48+ fantasy points in that stretch. The upside is great here if Chet continues to score and rebound the way he has in the last three games as we know he’ll register a few stocks as well. Holmgren’s projected ownership is simply too low considering how he’s played in the last week and this game environment. He makes for a great option in GPPs on both sites within the game stack and as a standalone. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had an amazing season that has inserted him firmly into the MVP conversation. The price has gotten high on both sites as he’s second to only Giannis. Gilgeous-Alexander is as consistent as they come, but he doesn’t flash his upside as often as Antetokounmpo and even AD. SGA should see single-digit ownership which makes him an interesting option in the game stack in GPPs. Next we have Jalen Williams who has had a breakout year for the Thunder. He’s $1,00 cheaper on DraftKings than on FanDuel and is at a reasonable price on DK. Williams has averaged 22 PPG in the last four games and has exceeded his salary in three of those four. He’s just a bit too cheap on DK with the total and tight spread in this game as they’ll need his scoring in this pivotal matchup. He makes for a solid option in all formats on DraftKings and can be considered for GPPs within the game stack on FanDuel. Lu Dort is a viable option on FanDuel because of the projected ownership he’s carrying, but there’s not a ton we love about the play with his lack of consistency.
As mentioned before, the Bucks are 2.5 point favorites in this one and have an implied team total of 117.5. The Bucks are currently 2nd in the Eastern conference and have somewhat found a groove under Doc Rivers as of late. We’ll start with former MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo who is averaging just under 59 FPPG on the season and possesses the highest upside of the slate. Giannis has scored at least 30 points in four of the last five games, which includes three double-doubles and a triple double in that stretch. He’s gone for 75+ fantasy points twice in the month of march and has the highest floor of the slate as well. The price is the highest of the slate which will bring down his ownership a bit, but he’s a great anchor for your lineups on both sites if you can fit him with your builds. After Giannis and Dame it gets pretty dicey and these guys should only be considered within a game stack or as a GPP option to differentiate your lineups. Damian Lillard presents some solid upside if he can continue to score the way he has in his last three outings as he’s gone for at least 30 in each game. He’s parlayed into performances of 50+ fantasy points in each of those games, and he’s registered a double-double in two of those. The concern here is the floor for Dame as he’s gone below 40 fantasy points on a few occasions over the last month. He’ll be sub 10% for the slate and makes for a great option to gain leverage on the field in GPPs. Lillard can be considered for GPPs as a standalone if you’re fading Giannis or you can play them together as well. After Giannis and Dame it gets pretty dicey and these guys should only be considered within a game stack or as a GPP option to differentiate your lineups. Brook Lopez and Kris Middleton can be considered as game stack only pieces out of this game. Middleton rates out much better on DraftKings and should be faded on FD where he’s $800 more expensive.
GSW/MIN
Our third game this evening has the potential to be an exciting one, as the Minnesota Timberwolves will play host to the Golden State Warriors in a matchup with a 2.5 point spread and a projected total of 220.5. Golden State currently sits in the 10th and final playoff spot, just a half game behind the Lakers, and only 2.5 games ahead of the Rockets, so they are in must win mode down the stretch.
As the Warriors continue to fight to stay in the playoff race, they will be led by Steph Curry. Curry is coming off of a 50 fantasy point effort the other night and they need him to stay locked in to finish the season. The Wolves are a tough matchup defensively but Curry can shoot against anyone and he put up 51 DK/47 FD points against them earlier this season. He is projecting to be virtually unowned this evening which brings him into play in large field GPPs and when stacking this game. Outside of Curry, the Warriors are pretty much a crapshoot. On any given day, any one of them can have their number called and have it be their day. With 7 players receiving anywhere from 25-28 minutes it’s hard to feel super confident in any of them, however each of them has GPP upside. In terms of who feels the safest, that would probably be Draymond Green or Jonathan Kuminga. Both should play 30+ minutes and in a must win game, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see either featured more on the offensive side of the ball, with Draymond distributing and Kuminga scoring. Trayce Jackson-Davis has been very productive of late and is averaging 1.16 FPPM on the season. If Rudy Gobert were to sit tonight, his matchup would get a nice boost. None of the Warriors should be in your cash lines today but if stacking this game, it makes sense to get at least a couple in, hoping for a competitive affair in a must win environment for them.
The Wolves have a couple of question marks tonight, with the statuses of Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert. Ant has been dealing with lingering effects from when he almost ended John Collins career, yet he has suited up the two games since, and continues to pace the team in usage (33%) and production (1.27 FPPM). Prior to his last outing, Ant had topped 50 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games and if the Wolves want to stay in the hunt for the 1 seed, they will need him to continue asserting himself on the offensive end. Rudy came back last game after missing the previous 3, and if he suits up tonight, he has a nice matchup, where the Warriors have given up a 6% FPPM boost to opposing centers over their last 10 games. Rudy grades out as the top PT/$ play on the entire slate today, and if he’s able to give it a go, he is a viable option in all formats. Jaden McDaniels seems to have found a little groove recently, as he has topped 21 fantasy points in 6 of last 8 games, while flashing a nice 40+ point ceiling just two games ago. While they mostly rely on him for his defense, he has gotten more involved offensively, scoring double digit points 5 times during that stretch. He is priced as a nice value piece today and is playable in both stacks and as a stand alone option. Mike Conley has been solid of late as well, averaging 1.03 FPPM over his last 5 games. Golden State has struggled defensively their last 10 games, giving a 9% FPPM boost to point guards. Kyle Anderson is a swiss army knife for the Twolves, recently playing the center position when Gobert and Reid have missed time. Slo Mo hasn’t flashed a big ceiling, yet he’s been consistent, topping 23 fantasy points in each of his last 6 games. While he isn’t a priority, he is certainly viable, especially since the Warriors like to run smaller lineups, which in turn could allow a few additional minutes for Anderson. The last Wolves player we can highlight is Naz Reid. At his current price, we are probably staying away from him this evening, however if Gobert is ruled out or limited in any form, or Reid gets announced starting alongside Rudy, we can absolutely fire him up. Naz has always been productive when given the minutes, averaging 1.05 FPPM to go along with a nice 22% usage clip. The Warriors have been vulnerable defensively, especially at the power forward position where they have given up a 27% FPPM boost over their last 10 games. If his minutes trend closer to 30 and he gets run at the 4, he has elite GPP upside, at minimal projected ownership.
LAL/IND
Our final game this evening is the late night hammer special, taking place a full 3 hours after the previous 3, and features the highest total of the night at 240.5 points. This is likely aided by the fact that both teams rank in the top 5 in pace as well as the top 14 in offensive efficiency. The Lakers need to win to stay ahead of Golden State for the last playoff spot, while the Pacers need to win to stay inside the top 6 of the standings and avoid the play in games.
For the Lakers, Lebron James is questionable tonight but we’d be surprised if he didn’t suit up, given what is at stake. Not much needs to be said to convince you that Lebron is a good play, he is the 3rd highest projected scorer on the slate where raw points are more important than usual given the small slate size. He leads the Lakers with a 29% usage rate and trails only Anthony Davis in production at 1.43 FPPM. Speaking of AD, the same argument that was made for Lebron can be used for him. The Lakers need to win, and this is a great environment for AD to thrive. He trails only Giannis for projected fantasy points and may be the only player that can touch his ceiling as well. D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves continue to play big minutes alongside Bron and AD, and both remain the 3rd and 4th options in this offense. While Reaves has been slightly more consistent with his production, Russell has put up some big numbers recently, topping 50 fantasy points in 2 of his last 3 games, along with going for 70+ in a game 3 weeks ago, granted without Lebron in the lineup. Indiana has been a better matchup for shooting guards, giving up a 10% FPPM boost over the last 1o games, adding a little more safety to Reaves this evening, but we’ll give the edge to DLo in terms of upside. Rui Hachimura is really the last piece of the Lakers we are interested in where he’s viable if you are looking for a cheaper piece of this game stack. While the ceiling hasn’t been there much of late, he has been consistent, topping 20 fantasy points in 13 of his last 15 games. There are better value options on the slate, still the game environment could open up a few more opportunities for Rui.
Lastly we have the Indiana Pacers, who find themselves as 3.5 point underdogs and have an implied team total of 119.5 which is only behind the Lakers on the slate. The Pacers rank 2nd in pace behind only the Wizards on the season and as mentioned, the Lakers are also in the top 5 in pace as well. There are about 8 Pacers that are viable on this slate as most of them are too cheap, have great matchups, a high total, and a tight spread. We’ll start with Tyrese Haliburton who seems to be back as he had a big bounceback performance on Friday night. He went for 26 points and registered 60+ fantasy points as he made four threes. This was the first game that he made more than two threes since March 5th, so it’s an encouraging sign for the shot to be falling. Because of the slump, he finds himself around the cheapest he’s been since the start of the season. This is a great opportunity for him to flash his upside and build off of Friday’s performance. He makes for a great play in all formats on both sites. On to another point guard, T.J. McConnell provides some needed value on this slate and should be considered in all formats on DK where he’s $1,100 cheaper than on FD and is sub 5K. He should see minutes that approach the 20s and he’s been very consistent in producing with that time. He’s posted 20+ fantasy points in six straight games. Next we have Pascal Siakam who is also too cheap for his recent production. He seems to have really settled in as he’s gone for 45+ fantasy points in four of the last six games, including two of those being 50+ fantasy point performances in those four. Aaron Nesmith is another viable option in the mid-range as he continues to see a healthy dose of minutes. As long as the shot is falling, he’ll be a solid option at his price. Jalen Smith is another guy that finds himself in a similar situation to McConnell. He’s getting around 20ish minutes and has been ultra consistent with those minutes. He’s a solid value option on DK specifically where he’s $800 cheaper. Myles Turner is a solid GPP option and possesses nice upside at his price on both sites. Lastly, Nembhard and Toppin are solid value options on DK only where they’re significantly cheaper. We’d like to rank the Pacers in order of preference since so many of them are viable, in order of preference: Haliburton, Siakam, McConell, Nesmith, Smith, Nembhard, Turner, Toppin.