Optimal Plays:
QBs: Herbert, Hurts
RBs: Ekeler, Mostert, Walker, A. Jones
WRs: Hill, Williams, Sutton, Mims/Reed
TEs: Higbee, Goedert
D/ST: Raiders, Packers, Seahawks
Top GPP Plays:
QBs: Tua, Wilson, Geno,
RBs: Jacobs, Herbert, Stevenson, Akers
WRs: Waddle, Allen, Metcalf, Lockett, Bourne, Atwell
TEs: Everett, Dulcich
D/ST: Any team that fits your build
Top Game Stacks:
Chargers/Dolphins – Herbert + Ekeler/Williams/Allen/Everett with Waddle/Hill/Mostert bring back.
Dolphins/Chargers – Tua + Waddle/Hill with Ekeler/Keenan/Everett bring back
Eagles/Patriots – Hurts + Brown/Smith/Goedert with Bourne bring back
Broncos/Raiders – Russ + Sutton/Mims/Dulcich with Jacobs or Adams
Seahawks/Rams– Geno + Lockett/Metcalf with Akers/Atwell/Higbee bring back
If you were with me at DFI over the past eight years, you may recall that the Afternoon NFL slates are my specialty. To view the Afternoon Slate in the projections, just select all ten teams in the dropdown filter and that’ll remove everyone from Early and Primetime games. We’ll of course be using the exact same projections for points, but the ownership will be amplified significantly on the chalk. The strategy that has won us so many GPPs in the past is to fade chalk aggressively on these slates. Players that were worth using at 15% ownership on the Main Slate could very well be 60% owned on these smaller afternoon slates, and that’s almost never worth it unless there are no viable alternatives. Given that our job is to dig deep and find those alternatives, we’re usually able to provide you with a nice edge on these slates.
Starting at the quarterback position Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts are your two optimal targets on this slate as Herbert is in the highest totaled game and Hurts is in a game with a three point spread with huge rushing upside. In optimal lineups you want one of these guys as they both project very well. They are solid in GPPs as well, but just know they will both carry ownership so getting unique will be key with these guys. Some guys we like for GPPs are Tua Tagovailoa, Russell Wilson and Geno Smith.
With most people using Justin Herbert in the highest projected game total of the week, the easiest contrarian thing to do is swap sides and play Tua Tagovailoa. Tua was flashing big upside last year before he got hurt and we know where the ball is going in this offense. He makes for a great GPP swap off his chalkier counterpart. Tyreek is expected to be pretty chalky, but Waddle projects for about half of his ownership if you want to double stack or fade Hill to be more unique. We’d prefer the double stack as that combo usually explodes whenever Tua is optimal.
Caleb’s GPP play of the week is Russell Wilson with a Broncos stack, and I have to say I’m a fan as well. After a disappointing 2022, Russ will have new coach Sean Payton and a fresh start here. He projects for lower ownership than all the other QBs we’ve discussed, and we have seen Russ show the upside in years past. We think he is in a good spot here and he grades out as one of the better point per dollar plays for us. It also helps that his stacking options are pretty clear. Mims and Sutton are two of the best PT/$ WRs on the slate, and if you want to get really unique you can play Dulcich (or insanely unique with Brandon Johnson). With a Russ stack, you save so much salary that you can jam almost anything around it when looking for secondary stacks.
The last stack we would like to touch on is a Geno Smith stack. Geno has multiple things working in his favor in this spot. Kenneth Walker is projected as the highest owned running back on the slate so running out Geno is an easy way to leverage on the Walker owners. Geno also gets to face a depleted Rams defense in this spot as they got rid of Jalen Ramsey and the names on this defense are laughable outside of Aaron Donald. The last thing to note is that we know where the ball is going in this offense as Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf will gobble up a huge target share in this spot. Geno is one of the best projecting guys on this slate and at low ownership we like him in GPPs.
At the running back position, Kenneth Walker and Austin Ekeler are the chalkiest plays on this slate.. You will probably want both of these guys in optimal lineups, but we think both of them can be faded in GPPs. Aaron Jones is a great play who is gaining steam because of injuries to the Packers WRs. That steam isn’t misguided though, as the Packers often use Jones more in the passing game when they are lacking receiving options. Jones will be in a matchup against the Bears who allowed the second most rushing yards last year to RBs, and he’ll have an inexperienced quarterback Jordan Love heading the offense without some of his top receiving options. This should all lead to the Packers leaning heavily on their best offensive weapon in the season opener. Even with AJ Dillon mixing in we think Jones’ ceiling is extremely high in this spot. He’s our favorite of the stud RBs to use in GPPs.
Next we have Raheem Mostert, who we originally projected low owned in this matchup with everyone flocking to the passing games or Ekeler, but with Achane ruled out he’ll be higher owned. The Chargers allowed a league worst 5.4 yards per carry and with a guy as explosive as Mostert and a crippled backfield behind him, he is in a great spot in a great game environment. We talked about it on the midweek podcast, but Mostert is such a good play we think you should use him in all formats regardless of ownership. We’re confident in our assessment that he’s one of the best plays on the slate.
Some running backs we like in GPPs are Josh Jacobs, Khalil Herbert, Rhamondre Stevenson and Cam Akers. Josh Jacobs proved last season that he can smash with one of the best workloads in the NFL. He averaged 20 carries and 3 catches a game. Jacobs absolutely torched the Broncos in their 2 games last season, racking up 255 yards and 2 TDs on the ground with 8 catches 90 yards through the air. At just 8% ownership he is a solid stand alone play, and he slots in perfectly as a run-back for the Denver stack. One of the thoughts about Jacobs last year was that he was balling out due to it being a contract year. Both parties were incentivized to give him a massive workload. Now he’s back on a one-year deal, so it’s the same situation more or less. We love this spot for him and think people aren’t paying enough attention to his massive ceiling. Khalil Herbert draws a great matchup in this spot as the Packers were bottom 6 in the league in rushing yards and touchdowns allowed to running backs. Herbert flashed some playmaking ability last year when Montgomery went down and against a bad defense we think Herbert is a great play at low ownership. Rhamondre Stevenson has an elite role in this offense as he gets plenty of carries and is also targeted often in the passing game. Stevenson has an elite floor/ceiling combo and this Eagles defense didn’t get any better over the off season losing several of their guys. Even with Zeke possibly taking some goal line carries we think Stevenson has monster upside and makes for a great runback in your Eagles stacks. The last guy to note here is Cam Akers. What is shocking about this spot is that he only projects for 0.5 fantasy points less than the chalky Walker but will have less than half the ownership. The Seahawks allowed the 3rd most rushing yards to running backs as well as being bottom 6 in yards per carry and rushing touchdowns allowed. The Rams showed they will give him plenty of touches as he averaged 19 of them over his last 6 games and at low ownership is in a great spot here against Seattle.
At the wide receiver position, Tyreek Hill is your chalk stud while Marvin Mims is your optimal value as the best point per dollar play on the slate. You want both of these guys in optimal lineups, but both can be faded in GPPs for better leverage. The next two optimal WRs for the Afternoon Slate are Courtland Sutton and Mike Williams.
Additionally, Jayden Reed is a guy who could sneak up in ownership as he seems to be gaining steam around the industry. With that in mind, we have a couple value WRs that project just as well if not better, but should remain lower owned. Kendrick Bourne and Tutu Atwell. Both of these guys are not getting any public buzz, but they should both get tons of opportunities to make plays on Sunday. There’s really no reason to use the chalk value WRs over these two in GPPs, as we actually have Bourne as the top PT/$ play, and I think Atwell carries the highest ceiling. I was reading a lot about him this offseason and he’s quietly learned all the routes for all three wide receiver positions so he doesn’t have to come off the field as often as he did last year. People are still thinking of him as a deep threat guy only, but I will not be surprised if he comes out looking like the WR1 for the Rams. If that ends up being the case, this would be the only week we can take Tutu at low ownership and min price before other people catch on. I’m going to take advantage of the massive ceiling and use Tutu as my top value WR in GPPs.
Some other wide receivers we like for GPPs are Jaylen Waddle, Keenan Allen, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Jaylen Waddle will likely come in at lower ownership than his chalky counterpart Tyreek Hill. This is the highest total game on the slate so finding different ways to attack this game could be key. If Tyreek isn’t exploding then it’s very possible that Waddle is on the other side doing damage as this passing attack revolves around those two guys. Another guy similar to Waddle is Keenan Allen, who will probably have lower ownership than his counterpart Mike Williams because it’s much easier to fit Mike. With that being said Keenan has been a target monster throughout his career and with the addition of pass happy offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, he could get peppered with targets in this spot at lower ownership than his counterpart. He also fits perfectly into our favorite game stack. The last guys to note are DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. With everyone flocking to Kenneth Walker the best way to get leverage off them is by playing the Seattle receivers. The Rams were 10th worst in the league last year for passing yards allowed but that was before they lost Jalen Ramsey and this defense got depleted. Geno has shown an ability to pass the ball efficiently and likes to focus his two stud receivers as they account for a massive part of the target share. We saw the upside of these guys last year and we think they make for great GPP plays in a very soft matchup.
At tight end the optimal play looks like Tyler Higbee. Higbee will be without Cooper Kupp alongside him in this matchup, and that probably means he’ll slot into the number one receiving option for the Rams. Seattle gave up the second most passing yards in the league last year and in a game script where they should be trailing, we think Higbee will garner plenty of targets in this spot. He’s also shown a massive ceiling in the past, so even though his floor games are ugly, he makes for an awesome GPP play as well as the optimal TE on this slate. We also like Dallas Goedert but Higbee is our TE 1. Goedert is an integral part of this dangerous Eagles offense and is a prime target in the red zone for Hurts. He makes for a great stand alone play and can also be included in your Hurts stacks. Any time you can get a piece of this passing attack at lower ownership it’s never a bad idea, and with most of the tight end options on this slate being subpar we think Dallas carries big upside compared to most of the other tight ends. His ownership would be much lower on the Main Slate than the Afternoon though as there aren’t many TEs people will be excited about. For that reason, I’d rather go Higbee or use someone we expect to be low owned.
Those low owned tight ends we like for GPPs are Gerald Everett, Greg Dulcich and Dallas Goedert. Gerald Everett projected at low ownership will be slotting in this Chargers offense with a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore who loved to draw up plays to get the ball to his tight ends in Dallas. Everett is also a great way to get access to the chalk game of the week at low ownership. We really like him if you’re stacking that game as we think he could have a higher ceiling this year working with Moore, but nobody is paying attention to him. Greg Dulcich makes for a nice addition to Russell Wilson stacks as Dulcich flashed upside last year even with the Broncos being horrendous. There has been rumor that Trautman will eat into Dulcich but when it comes to receiving we think Dulcich is clearly the guy in this spot. At low ownership this could be the time to pull the trigger before the field sees that Dulcich still carries plenty of upside.
Defense is just about using projections and fitting the team that fits your lineup best. Good luck and Let’s Ride Broncos Country!