Pitchers: Gray, Berrios, Eflin, Cole, Lopez, Burnes
Hitters: LAD (optimal), ATL (#1 GPP), TEX (#2 GPP), HOU (#3 GPP)
With the Dodgers profiling as the top option on the slate on the batter side, our pitching options will be based around spending up for those bats.
The two top arms on this slate that project to be both chalky and some of the top performers are Jon Gray and Jose Berrios. Gray has been up and down throughout the season but he draws a favorable matchup today with the Oakland A’s. A team that desperately just wants the season to be over. Gray is seeing a 15% swinging strike rate to the right side of the plate and is allowing only a .120 xISO as well. Overall upside combined with his price and matchup just make too much sense to avoid here and he is your top pitching option on the slate.
Berrios is not quite as much of a no brainer as Gray is but we like his upside here nonetheless. He projects for nearly the same production as Gray and should have plenty of built in run support in this one behind the explosive Blue Jays offense. Berrios at home has been a thing for a long time now and we expect this spot to be no different. He is currently seeing an average K rate of 23% to both sides of the plate and if he can navigate the left-handed bats, we believe he will have no issue neutralizing the righties in this Royals offense, which we all know to be their strength.
In all optimal builds, you should start with these two pitchers, and they make sense in tournaments as well. After you get past those two, if you’re feeling froggy, there are some upper tier pitching options that severely limit your offensive options. However, the low ownership here could be favorable.
Gerrit Cole is $12,000 on this slate and will certainly be difficult to fit. However, if you can, he is currently seeing a 28% K rate average to both sides of the plate and as we all know, is elite because he is Gerrit Cole. We don’t love the matchup with the Brewers here as they have some power on the right side and he is allowing a .200 xISO to that side of the plate currently. Corbin Burnes would actually likely be the preferred pay up option here against a Yankees team that has struggled down the stretch to right-handed batters. He is allowing a .100 xISO to left-handed batters and is seeing an average K rate of 29% to that side. The spot just makes too much sense to avoid, if you have the salary to get there.
These are the four we would consider with two very optimal options and two pay up GPP options. Should you want to shuffle them around in small field or single entry contests you should be just fine.
On the offensive side, there are a handful of offenses that make alot of sense and probably do not even need much of a breakdown simply because of who they are.
First and foremost, The LA Dodgers are the optimal stack on the slate, they have multiple batters projecting towards the top of the projections and that shouldn’t be ignored here. Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, James Outman and Chris Taylor all project to score a minimum of 10 points. We expect that to work quite well as a four man stack and Outman and Taylor are both sub 4k on this slate which will help with salary savings for others spots. Trevor WIlliams is on the mound for Washington and he is allowing a .200 xISO to both sides, don’t overthink this.
Up next, this should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone. The Atlanta Braves. Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies all project quite nicely, with a minimum of 10 fantasy points. They will see Luis Ortiz from the Pirates, who has struggled from both sides of the plate allowing a .200+ xISO. The Braves are one of the best teams in baseball and will look to continue their reign of terror against the lowly Pirates.
The Texas Rangers are perhaps the most “fun” offense on this slate for GPP reasons. The Rangers are all projecting for sub 10% ownership on this slate. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien both project for 10+ points in this spot, and Nathaniel Lowe and Jonah Heim make sense to complete the stack, both projecting just under 10 points. Luis Medina has not been “awful” this season. However, he is creeping up on his xwOBA allowed, nearing .350 to both sides of the plate. If we have learned anything this season it is that as that number steadily increases, so does the power allowed. This Rangers team has power up and down the lineup from both sides, which makes us excited about this stack. With minimal ownership projections and nice projected point totals this is our top GPP stack on the slate.
Our last featured stack is the Houston Astros who have a handful of guys projected to have great days as well. Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve all look like excellent plays from the projections. The left side of the plate has been very bad from Pitcher Matt Waldron. He is allowing a .250+ xISO to that side of the plate, making both Alvarez and Kyle Tucker excellent options on this slate.