Sunday Morning Updates:
- With the weather surprisingly clearing up in DC, that game all of a sudden becomes better than expected. My guess is that very few people will pivot onto this game. By Sunday morning, people are usually pretty locked in. They aren’t likely to pivot to players they weren’t considering at all. Unfortunately, I think Josh Allen is a bit overpriced, but using him is still viable for the low ownership. My favorite play here is Diggs. He’s been elite this season and the Washington defense isn’t good enough to contain him. He projects for single digit ownership and has huge upside. As much as I liked having Keenan Allen in my lineup, I swapped off him for Diggs to get low ownership with equal upside. I already have Kelley on all my teams so I don’t necessarily need Keenan to have my exposure to the Chargers offense.
- The Packers ruled out a ton of relevant players. AJ Dillon and Jayden Reed are both in play now. However, I still prefer Kelley and Mattison at RB and I prefer Dell for value at WR. I think people are overly concerned about Mattison. He had a couple tough matchups but his role is elite, and now he gets the highest team total on the slate with that same big workload and he’s inexpensive. I think the only reason he’s not chalkier is because people have decided he’s not good, but that’s really not for us to decide. If the Vikings are going to keep giving him the RB workhorse role in this offense then he’s a great play in good matchups like this.
Optimal Plays:
QBs: Cousins
RBs: Pollard, Etienne, Kelley, Moss
WRs: Jefferson, Keenan, Williams, Dell
TEs: Kelce or Ertz
D/ST: Bills
Top GPP Plays:
QBs: Mahomes, Fields, Tagovailoa, Watson, Stroud
RBs: Bijan, Mattison, Walker, Javonte, Allgeier (Deep GPP)
WRs: Tyreek, Ridley, Cooper, Reynolds, Collins
TEs: Hockenson, Laporta, Smythe
D/ST: Jets/Commanders or whoever works best in your lineup
Top Game Stacks:
Vikings/Chargers – Cousins + Jefferson + Hockenson/Addison/Osborn with Allen/Kelley run back
Chiefs/Bears – Mahomes + Kelce (No run back) or Mooney/Moore run back
Bears/Chiefs– Fields (naked) or Mooney/Moore (only 1) with Kelce run back
Dolphins/Broncos– Tagovailoa + Tyreek + Cracraft/Smythe with Javonte/Sutton run back
Browns/Titans– Watson + Cooper + Moore/Njoku with Hopkins/Chig run back
Texans/Jaguars– Stroud + Collins + Dell with Etienne/Ridley run back
Starting at the Quarterback position your clear optimal target on this slate is Kirk Cousins as he grades out as our top point per dollar play at the position and is in the highest game total we’ve seen so far this season. Kirk is a 100% lock in optimal lineups and is also firmly in play in GPPs. As you’ll notice in the header we have all 4 receiving options listed for Cousins as this game is such a crucial point on this slate and he truly has 4 viable weapons to throw to. The clear chalk piece in this game is Jefferson as he has slate breaking upside and will carry massive ownership, but with a price tag that high he does need to smash to be worth using. After JJeff, Hockenson, Addison and Osborn all project to carry under 7% ownership, which could be a way to differentiate in this mega chalk game. For smaller field players, another way to potentially differentiate in this game could be to full stack this game with a Kirk double stack and runing it back with 2 Chargers. We’ve seen games completely break a slate and this one is certainly in play to do so. All in all this is an elite spot for a shootout as the Chargers have been throttled through the air in their first 2 games and the same could happen again here. We like this game, but just keep in mind that this game will be extremely chalky so getting different in some other spots throughout your line is key if attacking this game.
We have a ton of great GPP quarterbacks on this slate with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Deshaun Watston and CJ Stroud at the top of the list. First on this list we have the alpha himself Patrick Mahomes. After a very slow start to the season, this seems like a prime bounce back spot against the miserable Bears defense in a game where the Chiefs carry the highest implied team total on the slate. This Bears defense gave up 38 points to the Packers and 27 points to the Buccaneers in their first two games and neither of those teams can light up a scoreboard like Kansas City. Another huge bonus for Mahomes here is that after a week of rest, Travis Kelce should be fully ready to go in this matchup and is the clear stack option for Mahomes. We prefer to leave this stack with Mahomes + Kelce, but if you choose to throw a dart, Scantling or Moore are your next best options. That being said, we genuinely aren’t fans of either. You can run Mahomes and Kelce with no runback if you choose, but if you wish to slot in a Bears player, Moore or Mooney are the clear options here. Mahomes projects to be the 2nd highest owned QB on the slate with ownership around 10%, but we think it’s perfectly warranted as this is a get right spot for Kansas City against a Bears team that is in shambles.
Our next GPP quarterback target on this slate is on the opposite side of that game in Justin Fields, who projects for an insane ownership around 2% in a game where they surely will need to score points to keep pace with this Chiefs offense. One thing stood out to us about Fields, which is that he made it clear in his press conference that he needs to get back to running the ball, which is where all his upside lies. We have seen him completely crush slates on the ground, but this year the Bears have called zero designed run plays for him. We are fine with running Fields naked here as his monster games usually come on the ground and he may not carry a pass catcher to a ceiling score in his elite games. If you choose to stack Fields, we would play one of Moore or Mooney, with a lean towards Mooney as he is known for his deep threat ability and could pay off his price in one or two plays. Your clear run back for Fields is Travis Kelce. We love targeting Fields in GPPs at criminally low ownership for a guy who can bust a slate wide open and running it back with our favorite TE on the slate.
The next GPP quarterback we like to target on this slate is Tua Tagovailoa whose team also holds one of the higher totals on this slate. Tua projects at around 5% ownership, and also as our 4th best points per dollar play at quarterback. He has a great matchup against the Broncos who just gave up 300 yards and 2 touchdowns to Sam Howell last week. For stacking partners your clear option here is the electric Tyreek Hill who should be quite lower owned than Jefferson. If there’s one thing we know about Tyreek it’s that he can completely destroy a slate and make it impossible to win without him. After Hill, with Waddle likely being out, we have a couple options here in Smythe, Cracraft and Berrios who are elite values on the slate and will help with value off the expensive Tyreek/Tua stack. All of these guys have low floors but at their cheap salaries dont need to do much to crush their salary tags. We prefer Smythe, Cracraft and Berrios in that order and they make for solid lower owned values in this stack. If Waddle was to play, we’d only like Smythe of the cheap options, and Waddle becomes an intriguing option. We also like running back this stack with Javonte Williams or Courtland Sutton if you feel the need to, but you don’t need a run back. Miami has shown that they’ll consistently push the pace whether or not the opponent is keeping up.
Our next GPP stack is Deshaun Watson against the pass funnel Titans defense. One extra bonus is this stack’s direct leverage off the chalkier Jerome Ford. Watson is projected to have sub-5% ownership in this spot. We have seen the Titans shut down the 2 chalkiest running backs and get smashed through the air in back to back weeks. We like riding with that narrative again as their pass defense is horrendous. Your clear top option here is Amari Cooper as he is the alpha in this offense and should command a lot of targets here at under 10% ownership. After that, Elijah Moore and David Njoku should both come in at under 5% ownership here and make for a great low owned stack. For run backs, we like Hopkins, who is also projected under 5% ownership as we just saw Pickens torch this defense on Monday night. Chig is a viable option as well, who carries big upside at the tight end position and projects well. If you choose to deploy this stack you can certainly deploy chalk around it as this stack should be very low owned.
The last GPP stack we have to mention is the key to unlocking monster builds this week in CJ Stroud as they take on the Jaguars. We saw this Jags defense get torched by Richardson in Week 1 and still give up 300 and 2 to Mahomes in an off game last week. The Texans are currently playing at the 2nd fastest pace in the league and have thrown 91 passes over 2 games as they usually are always trailing and have no choice. Stroud also flashed upside last week as he 5xd his salary and at such a cheap tag doesn’t need to do much. The clear top options here are Nico Collins and Tank Dell as they grade out as 2 of our best point per dollars plays on the slate and make for an extremely cheap stack to jam other studs around them. If running multiple lines, Robert Woods is viable as well. He’s running a route on almost every dropback like Collins and Dell, and will be a fraction of the ownership. Our clear run backs here are Travis Etienne and Calvin Ridley as the matchups for both are elite. I know some of us will even be deploying both in small field contests and we absolutely love getting exposure to this game in GPPs.
Moving over to running back we have four clear optimal targets on this slate in Tony Pollard, Travis Etienne, Josh Kelley, and Zack Moss. Starting at the expensive tier, Tony Pollard is getting a massive workload as of late and is in a smash spot against this lowly Cardinals defense. He projects as one of the highest owned running backs on the slate and grades out as one of the best points per dollar options. Pollard has an elite workload, as he received 25 carries and 7 catches in last week’s game against the Jets and could see another healthy dose of work in this game. In optimal lineups, you probably want to lock in Tony and move on. We think he’s in play in GPPs as well as a slate breaking score is certainly in play here. Our next optimal running back is Travis Etienne who is also in a smash spot against the terrible Texans run defense who have been getting thrashed on the ground for years. Like Pollard, Etienne also projects very well and has a healthy dose of carries with some involvement in the passing game enhancing his floor + ceiling combo. In optimal lineups you should lock Etienne and move on. Just like Pollard, we also like him in GPPs as we have seen plenty of running backs post slate breaking scores against this Texans’ defense.
In the value range, the best play is Josh Kelley. Like the other guys mentioned above, Kelley is in an elite spot against this Vikings defense who we just saw get thrashed by D’Andre Swift. Kelley won’t have as much involvement in the pass game as Ekeler, but his price tag is certainly too low for his role. In optimal lineups he is a 100% stone cold lock and in GPPs we believe it could be worth it to eat the ownership as he is direct leverage off of the chalky Chargers receivers. It doesn’t even seem like he’ll be all that chalky as people are scared off by last week’s dud, but that matchup is just brutally difficult and we are actually quite encouraged by the workload he received. Even though you are eating some ownership, you are also leveraging off two guys expected to draw a lot of ownership themselves in the Chargers WRs. I’m personally locking in Kelley in 100% of my lineups and hoping to get him at reasonable ownership in GPPs.
The other value RB that we like is Zack Moss. The weather in this game looks terrible, but that’s factored into the projections and he still looks great on a PT/$ basis. Moss had a massive role last week, and the team just released Deon Jackson. He had 18 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown, while catching four of four targets for 19 yards. He ran a route on 91% of the dropbacks as well, showing he’s pretty game script proof. The Ravens defense has been fairly stout against the run so far, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry to opposing backs. However, they’re dealing with a lot of injuries, and now there’s no Anthony Richardson to vulture carries from Moss around the goalline.
Moving over to our GPP running backs we’ve got several options in Bijan Robinson, Alexander Mattison, Kenneth Walker, Javonte Williams and Tyler Allgeier. Starting with the expensive tier, Bijan Robinson is flashing elite skills from what we’ve seen and what better matchup to truly explode than this horrendous Detroit defense? Bijan’s role is elite, as he had 19 carries and 4 catches in last week’s game versus the Packers, and he seems to be script proof. If they are ahead he will get fed on the ground, and if they are behind he has shown ability to catch passes at a high level. Projecting at around 10% we think this is a great spot for Bijan as we haven’t seen that slate breaking score from him yet, but we expect to see an explosion sooner rather than later.
Our next target is a great leverage play here with Alexander Mattison in the chalk game of the week against the Chargers. Mattison hasn’t lived up to the hype this season as he has been very inefficient. However, he has faced 2 tougher run defenses, and now draws a much softer spot here against the Chargers. The biggest thing we love about Mattison is that he is direct leverage off one of the chalkiest receivers in Jefferson and the chalkiest quarterback in Cousins. No matter the script, Mattison has shown an ability to get carries and catch passes so he certainly profiles as a guy with massive upside that we have yet to see. This could be the week that he finally breaks out. He grades out as one of our top point per dollar running backs on this slate. We think this could be a bounce back spot for Mattison and great leverage off the chalk.
Another guy we like for GPPs is Kenneth Walker who draws a great matchup with the terrible Carolina Panthers run defense. Kenneth projects as a solid points per dollar play, and should come in at under 15% ownership with all the other great running back options. Walker is a pretty boom or bust play, as he usually relies on a long run to smash. However, with how bad Carolina’s run defense is, some long runs are certainly in play here. Walker is a great option here in a game where he should get plenty of volume, as we expect them to be leading.
Another guy who we like in GPPs this week is Javonte Williams, who takes on the Dolphins. Miami’s run defense has certainly been susceptible to the run in these first two weeks. Javonte is actually getting a solid workload and comes in with a cheap price tag. He’s averaged 12.5 carries and 4.5 targets through his first 2 games, and that should keep increasing as he gets more reps back from injury. Projecting for sub-10% ownership, we think this is a spot to be ahead of the field as we all know the upside that Javonte carries. He makes for a solid GPP standalone play, and can also be included as a run back in Tua Stacks.
The last guy to note here that we consider a deeper GPP target is Tyler Allgeier, as he also has a great matchup with the Detroit Lions. Even with Bijan in the mix, Allgeier has still managed to rack up 17 touches a game as he is a part of an offense that loves to establish the run. Projecting at around 2% ownership, Allgeier is certainly a way to get unique. He will probably need to find the endzone to smash his price tag, since Bijan is the pass catching back. All in all, we just love this matchup for Atlanta as Detroit’s defense got gashed last week. At super depressed ownership, Allgeier is worth a flier in larger field GPPs to find that unique player to take you to the top of the leaderboards.
Moving over to wide receiver your optimal targets are Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Tank Dell. Starting with the most expensive, Justin Jefferson is in a genuine smash spot here against Los Angeles. We saw Tyreek Hill dismantle this defense in Week 1, and Jefferson could do the same. Jefferson grades out as one of the best point per dollar plays at wide receiver and certainly carries slate breaking upside. In optimal teams he’s a lock, but in GPPs you can certainly fade him because of the high price tag and the high ownership. Our next optimal target is Keenan Allen who is also involved in this high total game and is an absolute target monster. With Ekeler out, Keenan’s massive usage should continue. He projects as the 3rd best point per dollar receiver on the slate and should also face a lot of zone defense, something he has carved up his entire career. We think Keenan can be considered in optimal lineups and GPPs as Herbert should look for him early and often. He will draw some ownership but we think it’s warranted as this game environment is elite. On the same team, we have Mike Williams. In optimal lineups we think you can play Mike and move on, but in GPPs we like fading him in this spot for a couple reasons. With Mike being much cheaper then Keenan, we think people will end up siding with Williams for the salary savings. One thing that stood out to us with Mike is that he has been much better against man than zone, which isn’t ideal here as Minnesota runs almost exclusively zone. It’s notable that Williams was used heavily last week against zone, but over his career, his splits drastically favor man coverage. With Williams being higher owned, we’ll trust the career splits and side with Keenan in GPPs. We don’t hate Mike if you choose to go there, but we would much rather play Kelley or Keenan here when trying to capture this game.
Now we want to touch on two receivers who can both be used in cash games and GPPs alike. Nico Collins and Tank Dell both draw a solid matchup against the Jaguars in a game they should be trailing and forced to continue throwing. The Texans are running the 2nd most plays in the league, leading to a lot of opportunities for both of these guys as they are always in a negative game script. Collins is currently averaging 10 targets a game with Dell averaging 7 targets a game of his own, but he didn’t have much of a role in Week 1 so really he’s way underpriced for the role he showed last week. Both of these guys flashed big upside last week and their prices barely moved. They both grade out as elite point per dollar plays and in a spot where we expect them to throw a ton they could both be in line for big weeks once again. They make for an elite value stack with Stroud or in secondary stacks with a Jaguars piece. Dell is totally optimal in DK cash games and we can’t imagine building without him as you need value and he provides a ton of it. Collins is viable in cash but is better suited for GPPs since we think he’ll be much lower owned.
We’ve got some more great GPP receivers we like targeting on this slate in Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, and Josh Reynolds. What better way to start this group than with the slate breaker himself Tyreek Hill, as he draws a solid matchup against the Denver Broncos. In Week 1 we saw Jakobi Meyers drop 30 points on this defense, which does not set up well for Denver considering he’s miles behind Tyreek, a guy who’s basically unguardable. Tyreek also gets a bump here with no Waddle as he should certainly see double digit targets here and get plenty of downfield shots with this pass heavy offense. Hill is projecting for about 15% ownership which is completely warranted for a guy who can break a slate at any time. We like him here as a one off or as your top option in Tua stacks. One thing to keep in mind is that with him and Jefferson being a similar price, you really need Tyreek to do better than the chalky Jefferson here to put yourself ahead of the field.
Our next guy to note for GPPs is Calvin Ridley, who has a matchup against a weak Houston defense who just lost some of their best coverage guys to injury. We saw Ridley flash huge upside in Week 1 and get the same opportunities in Week 2, but he couldn’t convert and now it seems everyone is off of him as he projects for around 10% ownership. Another slight bump to Ridley is that Zay Jones will be out for this game which may mean even more opportunities. Ridley’s upside is sky high in this spot and we expect him and Etienne to be the focal points of this offense in a cake walk against the Texans. This is one of our favorite games to target this week and we love getting Jags/Texans into your lineups this week. Christian Kirk will probably be the chalk WR here after his monster Week 2 game and his lower price tag, but we prefer Ridley as the GPP move.
Another guy we like in GPPs who projects for under 10% ownership is Amari Cooper, who played through his groin injury against the Steelers and had a solid game. The key here is the matchup, as the Titans don’t allow anything on the ground but get destroyed through the air. This could certainly mean a big game for Amari is looming. Watson clearly looks for Cooper early and often, as he still saw 10 targets last week despite the injury. We think this is a great spot for the passing attack to get back on track and if that happens, Amari will almost certainly be leading it. Cooper’s price tag is extremely low for a guy we believe carries 30 point upside. He should definitely be in consideration in your lineups as a one off, or a primary piece in Watson stacks as this Titans defense could get smashed through there air.
Another guy we love this week is Josh Reynolds, who is still too cheap for a guy averaging 7 targets a game in a good offense. Josh grades out as one of our top point per dollar receivers and should remain a key piece to this offense. Two things stand out here that we believe enhance Reynolds’ upside. Amon-Ra is not only dealing with an injury, but so far this year he has struggled against 2 high safeties. The Falcons run 2 high safeties at the highest rate in the league, which we believe could lead to more targets for Reynolds here. Projecting at just 10% ownership, we think Reynolds carries big upside here at this low DK price tag. On FanDuel, they priced him way up, and unfortunately he’s not as good of an option if he almost costs the same as Calvin Ridley.
Moving over to tight end, we have two clear optimal plays. The optimal value play is Zach Ertz, playing in a game where they will most likely be trailing. In optimal teams you should probably use Ertz in and move on, but in GPPS we think he’s an easy fade as there are many tight ends on this slate that carry slate winning upside. The other optimal tight end is on the other end of the pricing spectrum, and that is Travis Kelce. The Chiefs carry the highest team total on the slate and he grades out as one of our top point per dollar plays. We all know Kelce is one of the few tight ends who can completely break the slate and after another week of rest we believe Travis will be in full form against this horrendous Bears defense. Kelce is by far the clear top option here and we expect Mahomes to look for his top option early and often to get this offense moving early. His XFP in Week 2 was elite even though he didn’t convert as many chances as we would’ve liked, and we think there’s a good chance he breaks this slate. Kelce will draw ownership on this slate but we think it’s totally warranted as he is one of the only tight ends who is capable of completely separating you from the field. He provides an easy way to set yourself ahead of other teams who pay down at the position, and we think there’s plenty of good value elsewhere. On DraftKings, we’d probably prioritize Ertz in cash games while using Kelce in GPPs. On FanDuel, we’d just lock Kelce in cash games because the value TEs aren’t cheap enough to justify not using Kelce. I’m also going to lock Kelce in GPPs on FanDuel because he’s by far the best play.
We’ve got some solid GPP options at tight end this week with TJ Hockenson, Sam Laporta and Durham Smythe. We’ll start with TJ Hockenson, who is projected to come in at just 7% ownership. With his price being so close to Kelce we would prefer to play TJ in Kirk stacks as a way to get a lower ownership piece in that game. We have seen Hockenson show massive upside already as he just had 26 points against a tough Philly defense and could be a great way to get some low owned access to the chalk game. All in all, we would prefer Kelce given TJ is priced so close to him but if you are playing Kirk stacks he makes for a nice piece to lower your total ownership.
Moving over to LaPorta, he looks like a solid mid-tier option who could be forgotten about. Atlanta is a great matchup for tight ends, and LaPorta has been a solid part of the offense. He’s run a route on 77% of the dropbacks on the year, with a healthy 17% target share. He only has an 11% first read target rate, which shows they’re not necessarily scheming up plays for him. However, he’s a good safety blanket for Goff and comes in with a great price tag.
Durham Smythe looks like one of the best point per dollar tight end plays of the week, and is a staple of Miami’s offense. He’s run a route on 94% of the dropbacks on the year, seeing just a 12% target share and 11% first read target rate. The first read target rate is low, but if you had an offense with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert, would you be scheming up plays for Smythe? Speaking of Waddle, if he were to miss this week, that would certainly bump up Smythe’s potential targets, and it seems likely he’ll miss. Smythe is a great way to get cheap exposure to one of the top offenses in the league.
Conclusion: This is a really fun slate in all formats, as we think we have an edge in cash games and GPPs with our core of RBs that are all pretty popular, but not overwhelming chalky. When you run “optimal” lineups using other sites’ projections, you get pretty different teams everywhere. This makes it a more fun week to play cash games because our takes actually matter. In all lineups, I’m starting with Kelley at RB. In most teams, I’m then plugging in Etienne or Pollard. In cash, you can’t afford both, and we prefer Etienne at the lower price point. Then you probably want to plug in Moss in your flex for cash games as your 3rd RB. You of course use Kirk Cousins in cash at QB, but we love pivoting in GPPs with some of our favorite lower owned options. At wide receiver in cash you start with Jefferson and Dell. On DK, this build forces you into using Ertz at TE, while on FD you can use Kelce. I think Kelce will be in nearly all of my FD lineups this week as he’s a total smash play and isn’t priced up enough.