The UFC heads back to the Apex for UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Gamrot. We have 11 fights on this slate with six of them favored to end inside the distance. Ideally we want to target those six fights, but they will likely be carrying more ownership than the fighters who are favored to go the distance. The six fights are Usman vs Collier, Malkoun vs Brundage, Means vs Fialho, Ramos vs Jourdain, Battle vs Fletcher, and Fiziev vs Gamrot (both sides are -115 on DK). The bolded fighters are who we prefer to use on today’s slate, but both sides in each fight are viable in GPPs. Let’s get into the breakdown!
In the top tier of fighters we prefer to use Malkoun, Mitchell and Battle. We have very little interest in using Rodriguez or Mizuki in large field GPPs, but they are okay to use in cash lineups based on their solid projections. Vidal should get the win in her matchup, but its a very low level fight so we would rather stay away from it. Fialho has a lot of power in his strikes and could find the chin of Means early, however his chin has failed him in 3 fights in a row now. If Fialho comes out more patient because of his recent KO losses, Means could use that to his advantage by being on the front foot and controlling the pace of the fight, especially in his southpaw stance. Fialho could be considered in GPP lineups because of his power but we are more confident in our highlighted plays. Malkoun has displayed an extraordinary ground game in the UFC with his ability to rinse and repeat takedowns then stay heavy on top for the majority of rounds. He should be able to find similar success in this matchup with Brundage. Brundage has struggled with good wrestlers during his UFC run and he may be cut from the promotion after potentially losing to another wrestler tonight. Malkoun can be used in both formats. Mitchell has a tough matchup tonight but he has the chance to make it look easy if he can get this fight to the ground. Ige has plenty of power on the feet that can hurt Mitchell, but if he makes one mistake he likely ends up on his back. A submission win is certainly on the table for Bryce Mithcell in this one, although current odds have this fight going to a decision. Battle has dropped down a weight class and has brought his power with him, and it showed in his last fight with a quick win bonus. In the fight before that, he was outwrestled by a very skilled grappler, which is leading people to believe Fletcher has more of a chance in this one than he probably does. Fletcher himself has talked about the striking of Battle and he knows he won’t be able to get inside easily, especially with Battle having a 10 inch reach advantage. Battle likely puts on a show in this fight and we like him in all formats.
In the mid range we prefer to use Argueta and Jourdain. There is no secret as to what Arguetas gameplan should be in this fight. He has a clear ground advantage and if he can find success with his takedowns he could put up a great score for his price range. He is projected to be around 30% owned but he is right above Fiziev on DK, who most people will click on because he is the favorite in the main event. Argueta is a good GPP play in our eyes when fading Fiziev. Jourdain gets a matchup where he can really put his striking on full display. His opponent is likely willing to engage with him on the feet for however long this fight lasts. Jourdain has a great chance to get a highlight reel KO in this one as he is the more technical striker and from what we have seen he has more speed, especially with his kicks. Ramos is more flashy and takes more risks, and that is ultimately why we think Jourdain can land something cleanly early on in this fight.
For value on this slate, we prefer using Collier, Gamrot and Means. Ige and Johns can be used in separate lineups where you want to be more unique. Ige and Johns are similar in that they both have the power to end the fight on the feet, but their opponents are much better on the ground and most of the time the guy who is the better wrestler can control the fight. Collier has faced much better competition than his opponent but has lost his last 3 fights. He lost two by decision and one by KO. He faces a guy who hits hard, very hard, but his accuracy is just not there. Collier throws with much more volume and if he can just avoid the big strikes his combinations should start hurting Usman. Usman does train at elevation so his cardio should be decent, but the volume of Collier is what could give him trouble. We do believe Collier can find a TKO stoppage in this fight; he just has to avoid the big shots early from Usman. Gamrot is an underdog in a fight where we believe he should be slightly favored. We like using him in all formats on this slate because Fiziev is currently projecting to be the higher owned guy by around 10%. Gamrot is a solid striker but his ground game is where he could excel in this fight. Fiziev is a talented kickboxer, but he doesn’t have much to offer on the ground. In our opinion, Gamrot has enough striking pedigree to walk forward and use the fence to get this fight on the ground. Once on the mat, Gamrot has a plethora of submissions he can attack with and we believe one of them will get him his hand raised after this fight. Means has been around for a long time so we know what we are going to get out of him. In recent fights he has been attempting to use his wrestling more, but he has also been facing a very high level of competition. Now, he gets a matchup against a guy who has also lost 3 in a row, all by knockout. Means does have power on the feet and has 2 knockdowns in his last 4 wins. If Means is victorious tonight we believe he can do it by knockout with a counter. Also, knowing he has been more comfortable with his wrestling against good competition also gives us comfort knowing if the striking isn’t working he can resort to the takedowns again. We think he’s a very solid value play on this slate.
Conclusion: Our favorite spend up options are Malkoun, Mitchell and Battle. In the mid range our favorite plays are Argueta and Jourdain, and for value our preferred options are Gamrot, Means and Collier.