Update: I think Javonte Williams is going to be underowned and it’s so hard to afford the KC stack so I don’t mind using him as a runback on the afternoon slate.
Update: With Jerome Ford active, none of the Browns RBs are particularly good plays. Ford or Hunt can be used in deep GPPs but I don’t think I’m going to risk it personally when we’re expecting to Seattle to win this game.
Optimal Plays:
QBs: Jackson
RBs: Pacheco
WRs: Chase, Flowers
TEs: McBride, Kelce
D/ST: Seahawks
Top GPP Plays:
QBs: Mahomes, Burrow
RBs: McCaffrey, Edwards, Hunt
WRs: Higgins, Cooper, Sutton
TEs: Andrews, Kittle
D/ST: Still the Seahawks
Top Game Stacks:
Ravens/Cardinals: Lamar + Flowers and/or Andrews with McBride or Brown run back
Chiefs/Broncos (snow game): Mahomes + Kelce and/or Rice with Sutton run back
Bengals/49ers: Burrow + Higgins and/or Chase with CMC or Kittle run back
We wanted to jump straight into our GPP edge on this slate as one thing stands out to us that the field hesitates to do. This is the perfect slate for double tight end builds as it lacks solid options at running back and receiver while we have a plethora of great tight end options. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle and Trey McBride are all great options. We believe you can deploy this strategy pretty optimally by pairing McBride with one of the studs as he is a great value play and the other 3 guys all carry similar upside to the guys priced around them. We love leaning into double tight end builds here and recommend you do the same as most people will force a lot of the same guys into their lineups to avoid using this strategy as it is a mental block for a lot of DFS players. And for others, they will view the expensive tight ends as a good way to get off the chalk McBride.
Now going to quarterback, our optimal target is Lamar Jackson who projects well and should draw the most ownership on this 4 game slate. Jackson has a great matchup here against the Arizona Cardinals who haven’t been good at stopping the run or the pass this season. The Cardinals have surrendered the fourth highest completion percentage and third highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. Lamar has a massive floor/ceiling combo here, with legitimate upside to hit the 100-yard bonus on the ground and 300-yard bonus through the air. He is the optimal QB in cash games and will be quite chalky. We like him in GPPs as well, as his upside is high and he is one of the only guys with legitimate 40 point upside on this small slate besides Mahomes.
In GPPs, the 2 guys we like focusing on besides Lamar are Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow who both draw nice matchups in game environments we like attacking. The options are limited on this slate so we like focusing on these 3 guys and getting unique throughout as it is hard to see one of them not being in winning lineups. Brock Purdy would be the last guy we don’t mind using, but only if you play Kittle.
Patrick Mahomes draws a great matchup here against the Broncos who have one of the worst pass defenses in the league as they rank bottom 3 in passing yards, passing touchdowns, yards per attempt and completion % allowed to opposing quarterbacks. With the news that this could be a snow game we like leaning into the passing attack here as we expect Pacheco to be extremely high owned on this slate and like to leverage off him with this stack. Snow doesn’t hurt passing offenses. It’s often accompanied by wind, which is what hurts passing. This game is not expected to have wind, even if there’s snowfall. The ideal situation is that there’s some snow on the ground, as it slows down the reaction time of the defenders and makes it easier for offensive players to get open. They’re slightly delayed in their cuts, but that’s not as important as the reactionary player being slowed down. Mahomes is our top GPP option on this afternoon slate as people over react to the weather and load up on Pacheco making this a perfect scenario to leverage the chalk in tournaments.
The other guy to note is Joe Burrow who draws a nice matchup against the 49ers defense that has been leaky at defending the pass this year. We just saw this team give up 378 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Vikings and their depleted receiving core making this a great spot for this Bengals offense. They seem to be healthy for the first time all year making this a great spot to target in GPPs. The 49ers have given up big games already this year and have yet to face a passing attack as good as this one so we could see some fireworks here from a game environment we are high on. We love playing him with Higgins and can’t fault you for playing Chase either as they are the two clear options here. CMC and Kittle are both on our radar as well and make for great run backs as we like attacking this game when searching for GPP winning upside.
At running back your optimal target is Isiah Pacheco who draws the horrendous Broncos defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone all year. This Denver unit is the only team in the league that has allowed over 1,000 rushing yards (1171) as well as allowing the most yards per carry to running backs. In a game where they should be leading as 7-point favorites with the highest team total on the slate, we think Pacheco will see solid volume here in a great matchup. In cash games, he’s a lock while in GPPs his ownership could get out of hand on this small slate making us love the leverage we can get with Mahomes stacks. You could include him in Mahomes stacks as well, but he doesn’t catch a lot of passes so you’d be banking on the full onslaught. That’s certainly viable against Denver.
In GPPs Christian McCaffrey, Gus Edwards and Kareem Hunt make for nice options as they are in good spots and should see much lower ownership than Pacheco. We’re not on Demercado as a value play because his role is not secure so at his ownership it’s better to full fade him.
Christian McCaffrey is in a nice spot here against the Bengals in one of our favorite game environments on this slate. There are no running backs on this slate that can match his huge floor and massive ceiling making us very high on him as he may have the best workload in the NFL. He is averaging 18 carries and 4 targets a game giving him 20+ touch upside every single week against a susceptible defense that has allowed the 4th most yards per carry to running backs. He can certainly be used in cash lineups and makes for a great GPP play as a stand alone or in lineups that feature Burrow as a run back or Bengals players as a secondary stack. He won’t be low owned but his ownership should stay in check as there are alot of solid pay up options on this slate.
Gus Edwards should be one of the lower owned running backs on this slate and draws a great matchup against the Cardinals. This defense has been susceptible on the ground as they have allowed the 4th most rushing yards and 6th most touchdowns to running backs. His volume is decent as he has averaged 14 carries a game over his last 3 outings and is the featured back when they get near the goal line. As 9.5-point favorites he should be in for a nice workload here as the Ravens like to run when they get a lead. The best thing about Gus is that if he is scoring and doing well, it is likely taking away from the chalky Lamar stacks making him an awesome leverage play in GPPs.
The last guy to note is Kareem Hunt, who draws a matchup with the Seahawks and should see a large chunk of the work in this backfield if Jerome Ford is out. This matchup is tough as they have been solid at stopping the run, but we like the role we expect Hunt to take on. He has three touchdowns over the last two weeks as he has been getting goal line work even with Ford playing, and we know he can be utilized in the passing game as well. At low ownership for a small slate we like him as a contrarian value running back that can rack up points on the ground and through the air. We’ll update you in Discord on Ford’s status.
At receiver your optimal targets are Ja’Marr Chase and Zay Flowers, who both project well and are in solid matchups on this slate.
Ja’Marr Chase squares off against the 49ers who have surprisingly given up some very solid games to receivers this year. We just saw this same defense get smashed by Jordan Addison who went for 123 yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions. He grades out as one of the better point per dollar receivers and locking in a huge chunk of points makes sense in all formats. We like him in GPPs as well as he boasts an insanely high ceiling. We do prefer his counterpart Tee Higgins in GPPs as he should see much lower ownership as there aren’t a ton of great receivers on this slate but all in all we still like Chase as well.
Zay Flowers draws a great matchup against this Cardinals defense that has struggled massively to stop opposing passing attacks this year. Arizona has allowed the third-most yards per target and a 74% catch rate to opposing receivers. This sets Zay up in a great spot as it is clear this defense struggles to stop anything through the air. In cash games he is a lock as he projects as the best point per dollar play at the position. In GPPs he’s viable, although he is expected to be the highest owned receiver so I’d probably rather try to get unique, especially since he correlates with the chalkiest QB. If you’re not using Lamar, I’d probably pass on Zay in GPPs, but he’s viable without a doubt.
In GPPs we have several nice options in Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper, Courtland Sutton and Rashee Rice who are all in nice spots and should see much lower ownership than the optimal guys.
Tee Higgins is in a nice spot here against the 49ers defense that has surprisingly given up some big games to receivers this season. We just saw this same defense get smashed by Jordan Addison, and we could certainly see Higgins rack up a ton of fantasy points here as well. Burrow seems to be getting his health back together just in time for this offense to be fully healthy for the first time this year. We have already seen him put up a big game this year against the Ravens, and there’s no reason he can’t do so here. When teams focus more towards Chase, Higgins gets more favorable matchups and goes off. It’s hard to predict when this will happen, so we like using Higgins when he’s contrarian. Especially when he’s also priced down, which is the situation this week. People think Higgins is having a bad year (because he is) but the opportunities have been there. His expected fantasy point totals are actually quite respectable, and his gap between expected and actual is one of the highest in the NFL. Expected to be low owned, Higgins is a priority for us in GPPs as he holds huge upside for his price and should be low owned on this 4 game slate.
Amari Cooper draws a nice matchup here against the Seahawks that have given up some big games to receivers this year. Even with PJ Walker as the quarterback, Amari still saw 8 targets last week as the clear top option in this passing attack. We think he is a nice option in GPPs as he should see low ownership and gives us access to a big ceiling as he has put up some nice games already this season. This slate lacks solid receiving options so taking a swing on a guy we know has nice upside is never a bad idea as most people will probably jam the guy they view as safe like Zay Flowers who has yet to top 18 fantasy points this season. Obviously Flowers can get there, but Cooper at lower ownership is a nice pivot.
Courtland Sutton is in a great game environment here against the Chiefs where they will almost certainly have to throw to keep pace. As we discussed previously the snow may lower a lot of ownerships in this game so we could see Sutton’s ownership be way too low. He has seen nice volume this season as he is averaging 6 targets a game with some of those coming deep downfield, giving him big play upside as well. It is likely he sees more volume here as the clear top option in this passing attack as they try to keep pace with this explosive Chiefs offense. We like him in GPPs as a stand alone but he makes for a nice run back in Mahomes teams as well.
The last guy to note is Rashee Rice who is starting to emerge as the best wide receiver in this Kansas City offense. He is averaging 6 targets a game over his last 5 outings as well as catching a touchdown in 2 of his last 3 games. The matchup couldn’t be better here as the Broncos defense ranks in the bottom 5 in passing yards allowed, completion %, yards per attempt and passing touchdowns allowed. This sets Rice up in an amazing spot and we like targeting him in GPPs as a guy whose stock continues to rise. It seems like a matter of time before we see a huge breakout game and we would rather be early than late.
Moving over to tight end, your optimal targets on this slate are Trey McBride and Travis Kelce who both project well and are in nice spots on this slate.
Trey McBride finds himself in a great spot here as Zach Ertz got hurt last week, leaving McBride as the next guy up in this offense that utilizes their tight end at a high rate. In a game where they will almost certainly be trailing as 9.5 point underdogs, we think there will be plenty of volume heading Trey’s way as he was already averaging 5 targets a game over his last three contests alongside Ertz. On DraftKings, he is a very strong play in cash as he is the best point per dollar play at the position by far, and he provides you with a nice floor for his ridiculously cheap salary. We like him in GPPs as well as he allows you to get up to studs we like on this slate, and he could smash his price tag as he doesnt need to do much to pay it off. His ownership will be high on this slate but we think its warranted as he is simply a great value that should see nice usage.
Travis Kelce is the other guy to note here as he draws an amazing matchup against this terrible Broncos defense. This unit has allowed the highest completion percentage, second highest passing yards per attempt, third most passing yards, and the most passing touchdowns. This bodes great for Kelce as he is the top option in one of the best passing teams in football. The volume is elite, as he averages ten targets per game and he showed us his huge upside last week when he went for 39 PPR points as one of the few guys who can separate from the position. He is in play in cash and GPPs for us as the floor is huge for a tight end and the ceiling he contains is matched by nobody else at the position.
For GPPs only we have 2 more good options in Mark Andrews and George Kittle.
Mark Andrews draws a great matchup here with this Cardinals defense that has been subpar this year at stopping anyone through the air. Andrews has averaged seven targets per game and is heavily utilized once they get inside the red zone. One big thing to note here is that he is projected for lower ownership on both sites as Zay Flowers is drawing a lot of ownership and many Ravens stacks include McBride as the runback. This makes Andrews a very nice leverage play off of him. He is a nice stand alone play and also a way to stack Lamar more uniquely, as most people play Lamar/Flowers/McBride and leave Andrews out of it. Playing double tight end is certainly viable in this game stack and we aren’t opposed to doing that and fading Flowers’ high ownership here.
George Kittle finds himself in a nice spot here against the Bengals. The notable thing here is that Deebo is still out, and Kittle has absolutely smashed in games without Deebo. Kittle didn’t come through on Monday Night, but he still has tremendous splits with Samuel off the field. This Cincinnati defense hasn’t been very good and is a prime spot for shootouts. We love targeting this game environment on this afternoon slate and think he makes for a great option as a stand alone or in Burrow stacks.
At defense your clear optimal target is the Seahawks who project well and take on PJ Walker who has been subpar his entire career. He’s currently leading all starting QBs in turnover worthy play percentage, but has gotten pretty lucky to avoid them through two games. This defense loves to blitz and could certainly give Walker problems, giving them a nice floor with high upside as well. In GPPs you can use anyone, but the Seahawks are clearly the best option. I think I’d rather differentiate elsewhere and play the defense against PJ Walker.