Optimal Plays: Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, R. Johnson, Chargers D
Tournament Options: Palmer, Parham, Foreman, Moore, Scott, Santos, Johnston
Tonight we have a pretty lopsided matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5) and the Chicago Bears. Both teams are coming into this game with two wins, but their fanbases probably feel differently about it. Many Bears fans probably hope they will keep losing for a high draft pick, while the Chargers are in win now mode with a young QB and aging stars, so their fans surely hope they get this win. This game has one of the highest totals of the week at 45.5, so we could see some fireworks between these two struggling teams.
The Chargers’ offense has been led by Justin Herbert who is still just 25 years old. He has been among the leagues’ best in years past but hasn’t been all that great to this point, ranking 13th in PFF passing grade. However, he’s been good in fantasy football as the QB5. The Chargers have had the 7th-highest PROE so they have not been hesitant to air it out. Herbert has also not been hesitant to throw deep this season with the fourth highest percentage of attempts over 20 yards down the field. The matchup for Herbert is extremely beatable as the Bears have struggled against the pass this year as they have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing QBs along with the ninth-highest completion percentage and the tenth-highest yards per attempt. This is also on top of the Bears 32nd-ranked PFF pass rush and their 25th-ranked coverage grade. All in all, it is a very advantageous matchup for Herbert and the rest of the Chargers passing game.
Austin Ekeler has had a slow return to excellence from his high ankle sprain, putting up games of 10.2 and 5.6 PPR over the last two weeks. He has faced Kansas City and Dallas who are both in the top tier of defenses to this point, so we get him at a nice discount this week as he arrives in an easier matchup. The Bears have not been nearly as stout as the prior two defenses mentioned. They have allowed the sixth most points to opposing running backs, but most of that damage has been done through the air as they have allowed just 3.4 YPC which is second-lowest in the league, while allowing 398 receiving yards to running backs, which is the most in the league. Ekeler should have plenty of opportunities to catch the ball in space and put up big numbers in this game and could also salt the game away late as the Chargers are multiple possession favorites. Josh Kelley had a nice game last week as he broke a long run for a touchdown, but he had just seven carries. Due to his single digit carries and his lack of usage in the passing game, we are fading Kelley on this slate.
The Chargers’ receivers have still been recovering from the Mike Williams injury. Keenan Allen has been forced into the alpha-WR1 role but has struggled, averaging just under five receptions a game for 57 yards a game from Week 4 on. As stated in the Ekeler write-up, there have been some tough matchups in that time but his target share has been a bit down as well with 28% of targets in the last three games compared to 33% in the three games prior. Allen should have a chance to get back on track this week as the Bears have not really faced many true WR1s with solid QBs outside of Mike Evans who went for 7-151-1 against them in Week 2. We love Keenan Allen this week as the Chargers pass game finally gets a plus matchup. Josh Palmer has seen the biggest bump since the Mike Williams injury as his target share has risen from 11% to 24%. He has been the true WR2 in the offense, playing 94% of snaps and scoring double-digit points in every game. Over that span, he is also the leading the team in air yard share at 37%. Palmer has been more of a defacto second option in this offense than a purposeful target as he has shown a pretty mid skill set in years past. That being said, maybe he’s improved because he is coming off three straight 60+ yard games with 7+ targets in each one. We are considering him a solid GPP option that could break off a long catch and find the endzone. Quentin Johnston has perhaps been the most disappointing rookie this year, as even after the Mike Williams injury, Johnston is playing 51% of snaps but has just an 8% target share. He has an incredible ceiling for GPPs but has yet to show it, topping out at just 3 PPR points in a game. He could make sense in large field GPPs but we are going to advise staying away until he shows some production.
The Chargers’ tight end situation could be a bit more condensed if Gerald Everett misses this game. He is a GTD with a hip injury after scoring touchdowns in two straight games. If he does miss or is limited, Donald Parham becomes a great play. The XFL legend has been lightly involved this season, playing on just 43% of snaps, but could see significant playing time if Everett were to miss. If Everett misses, we could also see an expanded role from Stone Smart who may be worth a dart throw at $200. Whoever plays tight end for LA could have a big game as Chicago has allowed the 11th-most points to opposing tight ends. Parham would be our priority here as his red zone role is already quite valuable.
The Chargers’ second-year kicker Cameron Dicker has been solid this year making eight of his nine field goal attempts as well as all 16 of his extra point attempts. He comes in a bit expensive at $5,200 though, which is steep for his lack of ceiling.
The Los Angeles defense is definitely in consideration tonight as they face Tyson Bagent who is making his second NFL start. Bagent was solid last week but may have a bit rougher game against the Chargers tonight. He now has a game and a half of tape available and may not have the benefit of the offense running for 150 yards. The Bears are more likely to play from behind this week compared to weeks past so we could see Bagent forced to make plays, which could result in more sacks and turnovers for the Chargers. The Chargers defense has allowed a lot of points this year, but they do have Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa rushing the passer so plays could be made.
The Bears’ offense was surprisingly competent last week with Tyson Bagent under center. He threw for 162 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. The game plan with Bagent under center seemed a bit conservative though, as his aDOT was just 2.5 yards. With a full game of tape showing nothing but short passes, the Chargers will surely try to force him to throw downfield. He did add one rush for 24 yards on a scramble but we don’t expect too much from him on the ground this game as he had just 180 rushing yards across his four years in college. Bagent is expected to be pretty high owned tonight as a cheap showdown QB but we believe last week was pretty close to a ceiling game for him and don’t think he will be able to get by tonight just throwing two yards down the field. The Chargers’ defense has not been anything special this year, but if the Bears get down early, he could be forced to make more plays which could go well…or really bad. We are advising a fade of Bagent at his high ownership and low ceiling. QBs are never low enough owned that we’d want to roster Bagent.
The Bears ground attack has been a bit of a whirlwind this season. After D’onta Foreman was a healthy scratch the first couple weeks of the season, he was the starter last week with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson sidelined. He managed to put together a 30-point fantasy performance. Foreman has probably played himself into a larger every week role with his performance, but we expect Roschon to get pretty significant touches this week as well. While Foreman had a big game last week, he still only saw 53% of running back carries and played on just 46% of snaps. We anticipate Roschon will step into the Week 7 Darrynton Evans role, where Evans had 47% of running back carries (14) and ran a route on 13 of 32 pass attempts. Roschon’s role in past weeks has been as a pass catcher out of the backfield, which could play into Chicago’s game plan as Bagent has just a 4.6 aDOT on the season and 28 of his 37 pass attempts have been less than 10 yards down the field. The Chargers’ defense has been pretty average against the run allowing the 17th-highest YPC and the 10th most fantasy points to running backs this season, so both Foreman and Johnson could be in play. We like Roschon a bit more in this game as the Chargers have allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to RBs this season at almost 60 yards a game and we expect Johnson to run more routes than Foreman. It is unclear who will have goal line carry duties for the Bears as Roschon leads the team with three across his five games, but Foreman got the only two last week. Most people probably assume it’s Foreman, but we think it could just as easily go back to Roschon.
The Bears receivers are a little dicey this week with Bagent under center. He targeted WRs just 17 times last week and no receiver had more than 54 yards. DJ Moore paced all receivers with nine targets, five more than any other player. He continues to be the number one option in this offense. His target percentage and air yard share over the last two weeks has been elite at 33% and 60% respectively but that has resulted in just 13-105-0. It is hard to imagine Moore has much upside outside of breaking a screen pass for a touchdown. He is an elite talent with an elite target share though so we think he could be a solid GPP option. Darnell Mooney has been the WR2 for Chicago this season but has lacked upside with no games with no more than 53 receiving yards in a game this year. With Bagent under center, it is hard to imagine a big game from Mooney without a touchdown. If you are looking for a cheap wide receiver option, Tyler Scott may be the way to go for Chicago. Scott has seen his snap share go from 10-14 snaps a game over the first five weeks to 79 snaps over the last two weeks with Chase Claypool in Miami. To go along with the snaps, he has seven combined targets in the last two games to go along with a 28% air yard share. Scott comes in at just $1,200 on DK but expects to carry some ownership as people try to save money to pay up for the Chargers’ studs. We still think he is one of the best value plays on the slate and these deep value guys are never all that chalky in GPPs so he’s well worth using. All in all, the Bears receivers are extremely risky as Bagent had under 75 air yards last week. Moore and Mooney will need a touchdown to be viable while Scott just needs a few catches.
The tight end position for Chicago has been led by Cole Kmet who played on 63 of 71 plays last week but failed to record a single target, following up a 2-9-0 performance the week before. The Chargers have been a good matchup for tight ends allowing the eight-most points to the position, but due to Kmet’s limited usage, it is hard to imagine him having a big game at his price tag. He will likely need a touchdown and a handful of catches to pay off. Mercedes Lewis had a catch last week but that was just his second of the season so we are avoiding him this week.
The kicker for the Bears is Cairo Santos. He has yet to miss a field goal this season and has only missed one extra point. Santos is a solid option at $800 cheaper than Dicker and similar ownership. There’s a lack of mid-tier options so Santos sticks out as a solid value at $4,400. People hate playing kickers on big underdogs, so the ownership shouldnt be too bad.
The Bears’ defense will likely need to step up and make some plays to keep them in the game tonight. Chicago has not done a great job at creating turnovers though with only eight this season and just five outside of last week against Brian Hoyer. Additionally, the Bears have just 10 sacks through seven weeks which ranks 31st in the league. We are probably fading them tonight but could see them as a value play at home.
Conclusion: It’s hard to get excited about many options on the Bears side of this game, but we love Johnson and Scott as value plays, while Moore and Santos are viable as a GPP plays. Herbert and Ekeler are smash plays that it’s hard to build without. Palmer and Chargers D feel like the optimal plays if Palmer goes. If he doesn’t play, Johnston would be the WR2 and we think Ekeler would be the biggest beneficiary playing more snaps as a receiver. Johnston would become a very good play stepping into the #2 role that has proven to be elite for Palmer.