Optimal: Schauffele, Burns, Harman, Ghim, Rai, Car. Young, Glover, Dahmen, NeSmith (FD punt)
GPP: Im, Spieth, Taylor, Bradley, Hadwin, Putnam, McNealy, Moore, Bhatia, Schenk, Hisatsune, Lower
What a week of golf we had last week, as the Tour delivered its best tournament and finish of the year at The Players. It will be hard to top this week, but we are heading to what I believe to be one of the more underrated courses that the Tour has to offer: Innisbrook. This course really tests your ability to plot through a round, requiring some accuracy off the tee in order to set up angles to go at greens/flags. It will invite some unique shot creativity, and has one of the best finishing stretches of the season in the Snake Pit. We should be in for a fun test this week!
We know the disappointment Xander Schauffele probably faced following a narrow loss at Sawgrass, but we come into a week where he is far and away the best statistical player in the field and our projections showcase this. Xander ranks top-5 in Strokes Gained Approach, Off the Tee, and Around the Green along with three putt avoidance and greens in regulation gained. Xander has one of the most balanced games on tour and has been in elite form. We believe he is poised to contend again this week, and he will be a very hard fade this week for us in optimal formats. The obvious pivot from him for people will probably be Sam Burns, who also comes in with strong form and has won at this course twice. Burns makes for a great option this week as well, but we slightly lean Xander in optimal formats if you do not want to jam in both.
The next player into optimal formats will most likely be Brian Harman, who similar to Xander came so close last week at Sawgrass. Harman is playing great golf, and comes in ranked top-25 in Strokes Gained Approach, three putt avoidance, Strokes Gained ARG, and Proximity from 150-175 yards. His game should suit this course very well given his accuracy OTT, making him a great option at this price tag. The pivot here that is really intriguing is Jordan Spieth, who has also won at this course and was in the mix a year ago. Jordan was in very nice form before a huge letdown at Sawgrass, which should lead to a lot of people jumping ship this week and creating low ownership on him at this price tag. Spieth has been strong ARG and Putting this season and ranks top-10 in three putt avoidance. We also believe the strategic element of plotting around Innisbrook opens up something that suits his eye. He is a riskier option, but in GPPs Spieth has the upside to score a ton and be in the mix this week.
One value guy that really pops for us is Lucas Glover. Glover ranks top-10 in Strokes Gained Approach and Proximity from 150-175 yards, along with top-30 in Strokes Gained ARG, Good Drives Gained, Greens in Regulation Gained and Opportunities Gained. Glover really suits this style of course, and we expect him to bounce back from missing the cut on the number last week. Consider him an optimal target.
Another value guy that we love, especially if you want to jam in two studs, will be Joel Dahmen, who had a nice showing last week and grades well as a PT/$ value option in our projections. Dahmen ranks top-10 amongst the field in Strokes Gained OTT, along with in Good Drives Gained, Greens in Regulation Gained, and Opportunities Gained. He is also top-25 in Strokes Gained Approach and ARG. At such a discounted price tag, Dahmen opens up builds a ton and we love using him in all formats.
Some other PT/$ value players that our projections love this week include Greyson Sigg, Ryo Hisatsune, Carson Young, Adam Schenk, and even Justin Lower if you want to punt way down the board to find a piece that helps you jam in the studs.
One and Done:
This is an interesting week for One and Done. We have a good set of names available, but this is one of the smaller purse events. However, the field does not really contain any mega elites that you would want to 100% save for an elevated event or major. Therefore it feels like almost anyone is on the table. We believe the higher owned and more optimal options will be Brian Harman and Sam Burns. Burns is a two time winner at this course and has been in great form leading up to the event. He has great odds to win, and would make for a great option to burn at a course where his game fits very well. Harman may very well be in the best form of anyone in the field, and has found some success at this course with a top-5 under his belt here. Harman has the style of game that should translate well here with his accuracy driving the ball and a great short game. We consider him a great option as you will rarely see him with this short of odds to win an event.
Xander is an interesting case coming off of a heartbreaking loss last week at the Players. He is the clear best player statistically in this field, and has the balanced overall game that should suit him very well in order to contend at Innisbrook. We believe Xander is worth a shot in One and Done given that you will not find him sub 10-1 again this season, and there are plenty of big names to use at future elevated events. Similarly, Jordan Spieth has had tons of success at this course with a win and a close call last year at this event. This course does invite a sense of creativity that activates something for Spieth. This one is a tad riskier given there are a few clear Spieth courses on the schedule left, but he should come in lower owned and we believe he is worth a look at a course that suits his eye. He should also get overlooked after a very poor week at Sawgrass, which came as a bit of a surprise given his form to start the season.
Deeper down the board if you wanted to skip these names at the top, we believe you could look at Sungjae Im, Keegan Bradley, and even Lucas Glover if you really wanted to take a stab at low ownership and avoid the bigger names.