Saturday Night Update: Justin Jefferson is the top pt/$ WR on both sites and projects for low ownership. You may question that projection, but then if you try to build with him, you realize that it’s quite difficult and you probably end up prioritizing your running backs and cutting him. Despite being the top projected receiver, it really takes dedication to play him, as you’re going to have to prioritize him over just about every other player on the slate. With a player like him, I really can’t say if he’s going to have a ceiling game or not because matchup hardly plays a factor for him. It will really just come down to a few big plays, or lack there of. The edge I can provide here is simply pointing out a very good player with an optimal projection and an extremely high ceiling, at relatively modest ownership. I think the leverage that can provide us is great. Darnold also projects for modest ownership despite being one of the top pt/$ QBs. I think his ownership being low is a product of Jefferson being the only guy you’d really be comfortable stacking him with, and it being very difficult to fit that stack into your lineups. So now you have two guys that project optimally at their positions who aren’t very chalky. That’s a rare opportunity that I intend to take advantage of. You don’t have to run back the stack, although Evan Engram certainly makes for a viable option. It remains to be seen who Mac Jones targets the most, but Engram is a logical choice.
Optimal Plays:
QB: Purdy, Darnold, Herbert, Daniels
RB: Kamara, Bij. Robinson, Conner
WR: Downs, Hopkins, N. Brown, Adams/Wilson (Pick one)
TE: Kelce, Otton
D/ST: Bears
GPP Plays:
QB: Allen, Hurts, Wilson
RB: Hunt, Barkley
WR: Jefferson, Sutton, Pickens, Shepard
TE: McBride, Ertz, Kincaid
D/ST: Chargers, Vikings
Bad Chalk: M. Jones, A. Jones, Hall, Samuel, London, McConkey, Dissly, Hill
Week 10 is here and we are ready for all the action it is going to provide to us! The NFL season has blitzed right past the halfway mark and it is hard to believe that we have more weeks behind us than in front of us the rest of the way. This is shaping up to be another great slate and we are very excited for it. Let’s get to it.
Per usual, we will kick things off with our quarterbacks. Most of the optimal QBs this week are in the mid-range and you will see how that shakes out as we go through this position. Brock Purdy headlines our optimal selections on the slate in his matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The key for Brock is that it appears they are going to be near full strength with both McCaffrey and Jennings back this week. The Bucs rank 26th in EPA against the pass this season and this game has the highest implied total on the slate. The Niners are a hard team to pin down with their skill players this week, so if you do play Purdy, it is viable to just play him and not stack him with anybody as it’s very likely a -EV move to try to guess who will score the TDs for them. While he will be chalky, that is a very intriguing way to play him in GPPs as your lineup will become quite different in that case as almost every Purdy lineup will include one of his receivers. Sam Darnold is the next optimal consideration. He has been absurdly consistent this season for Minnesota. Outside of one poor start against the Jets, he has posted between 15-23 fantasy points in every other game he has played. The matchup this week is as good as it gets with him facing off with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are bottom of the barrel in EPA against the pass and have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The only flaw for Darnold is that we do question his ceiling. The Vikings just don’t throw the ball a ton as he has exceeded 30 passing attempts precisely twice this season. He is a phenomenal optimal play in this spot but you can go hunting for more upside in GPPs if you want. Justin Herbert is entirely too cheap in his matchup with the Tennessee Titans. He is priced like he is Cooper Rush and that is just silly. People have a poor view of the offense for the Chargers this season, but Harbaugh has begun to open things up for Herbert lately. Their PROE has been positive over the last three weeks and he has thrown for over 300 yards per game over that span as well. The Titans are an elite run defense, so this is a strong spot for them to lean on the arm of Herbert once again. Lastly, if you do want to pay up, the optimal selection is Jayden Daniels once again. The consistency from the rookie has been remarkable, scoring 19.8+ fantasy points in all but two games (one of the misses he left early due to injury). He comes in at a material discount from the other studs on the slate and has outperformed them this season. The only knock is the matchup, as the Pittsburgh defense is not one we tend to want to target much. With that being said, he is still an optimal consideration as his rushing upside is ridiculous. Lastly, Mac Jones projects well enough and is going to be a popular selection at $4.5k on DraftKings. Our advice: don’t do it. Brian Flores is dialing up elite pressure packages this year and Mac is going to have zero idea where the blitzes are coming from. If he beats you, you should be able to tip the cap and wear that loss. Nothing would be worse than playing him and having to curse his name all Sunday.
In GPPs, we love the thought of paying up. Both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are our favorite options to do so with. The rushing upside for both of them is impeccable and Hurts has scored 29.9 and 35.1 fantasy points over the last two games. He goes up against Dallas and their swiss cheese defense. In fact, he still scored 29.9 fantasy points last week despite getting stuffed on two Tush Pushes. The floor/ceiling combo for Jalen is impeccable and so is the matchup. He is projected for ¼ of the ownership of Mac Jones and roughly ⅕ the ownership of Brock Purdy. Josh Allen gets to go up against the Indianapolis Colts. He has now posted 20+ fantasy points in four straight games and this is a very strong spot against a poor defense to make it five straight. You can’t go wrong with either. If looking for a GPP mid-range option, Russell Wilson may be your man. He gets to go up against the Washington Commanders and we know how poor their defense can be at times. He has averaged nearly 20 fantasy points per game over his two starts so far and those performances could have been even bigger if Pickens could ever get his feet down in the end zone. He has averaged 271 passing yards per game so far and that sets up very well in this spot. We think he has plenty of merit in GPPs.
We now get to the RBs, and boy oh boy is this an interesting position this week. We normally see 1-2 players getting ownership steamed in their direction but this week there is a core group of six backs that are getting between 20-30% ownership and then it is pretty much everybody else way down the list. It will be crucial to discern how to attack that group of six and we will do just that for you here. It is important to note that because of the way ownership is breaking down, we don’t think you have to get too crazy at this position. As you will see, we only included two GPP backs as we think expanding outside of this pool of options will become very suboptimal due to how good the top backs are. To attack this spot, we really think you need to analyze the upside and downside for each of the backs and hone in on the ones that you don’t have to be as concerned about. Aaron Jones is projected as the chalkiest of the backs. We have to be clear that there is nothing wrong with the spot that Jones is in and it is quite tricky to pin him down. The issue here is that he has been very inefficient in finding the end zone this year, only crossing the goal line 3 times. With this core group of backs, that is alarming as it will neuter his ceiling significantly in comparison if he doesn’t get there once again. The work should be there, especially in a game they should be leading. But given the fact he is projected as the highest-owned back on this slate, this is a spot we are going to plant our flag and fade given the TD risk. You could argue that he’s been unlucky, converting just 2 of his 7 carries inside the 10, but the problem here is really that Darnold has been so efficient inside the 10. He’s completed 15 of 19 pass attempts for 11 TDs. With results that good, why would the Vikings stop throwing near the goal line? And if they are throwing that successfully instead of running, Jones’ upside is capped. To be clear, now that we have said all that, Jones is going to run in 3 TDs and absolutely bury us! Breece Hall also sits in this top group and this the other back we are not keen on. His receiving upside has fallen off a cliff ever since Adams came to town and that neuters the upside and value he provides. With just three total receptions over the last two games and Braelon Allen constantly impeding his grasp on the RB carries, we don’t love utilizing him with other workhorses available. Speaking of workhorses, enter the three-headed monster of Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, and James Conner. They are three of our favorite plays on this slate and you are not going to find better options than them. Kamara is coming off a week where he carried the ball 29 times for 155 yards and caught 6 of 9 targets for 60 yards. He posted a massive 30.5 fantasy points without even finding the end zone. The Falcons are far from a staunch defensive unit and with Olave out, Kamara’s receiving upside is sky-high. The only slight ding on him is the threat of Taysom Hill vulturing TDs, but the workload is more than able to make up for it. Bijan has now scored 20+ fantasy points in each of his last four outings and is finally starting to see the bulk of the RB work for the Falcons with 19+ carries in two of his last three games and 7 receptions in each of his last two. He now has 100+ all purpose yards in each of his last four games as well. The Saints just gave up 2 rushing TDs to Hubbard last week and Bijan easily could be next. Lastly, James Conner continues to just get handed the ball over and over and over again by the Cardinals. He finally is attracting ownership this week after being extremely under-owned for weeks on end to start this season. The Jets are a solid matchup for opposing RBs as teams tend to gravitate to the ground against them due to the elite nature of their outside corners. We love all three of them in all formats this week.
In GPPs, our two top pivots off this core group are Saquon Barkley and Kareem Hunt. Barkley is a strong option to include in your lineups as he is projected for ⅓ to ¼ of the ownership of the top group and has now received 27 and 22 carries over the last two weeks. His ceiling is impeccable as he has scored 35+ fantasy points three times this year. Dallas has also allowed the highest EPA against the rush in the league this season. This is a game they should control and we very well may see a steady dose of Saquon. Kareem Hunt continues to be extremely underpriced for his role in the offense for Kansas City as well. He has posted rushing attempt totals of 27, 22, 21, and 27 in the last four weeks and has scored north of 20 fantasy points in three of the contests. The matchup with the Broncos isn’t elite but it is rare to be able to get somebody with this kind of workload for the ownership he is projected for. As mentioned, don’t feel like you need to get too crazy at the position this week and we would stick with the core guys we have called out here.
We now move along to the pass catchers and they start first and foremost with Josh Downs. Downs has been a favorite target of Flacco’s this year for the Colts and Michael Pittman has been ruled out. That means Downs is going to most likely get absolutely peppered in this one against Buffalo. This is a game they most likely will be trailing and will have to throw. Downs has seen 9+ targets in every game Flacco has started and that gives him a very high floor, making him a clear optimal target. We are going to plant our flag and say that DeAndre Hopkins needs to be a lock in most of your lineups this week. It is clear from what transpired last week that he has already established an elite connection with Mahomes and his price is just too low. That game was played on Monday night after pricing for this week had been released. We think had that game been on Sunday, he would be $1k more expensive than he is right now, simply making him a smash play this week. If he isn’t going to project for gargantuan chalk, this is a player that you are going to want to have in your lineups as the Chiefs were drawing up plays for him and looking his way in the red zone routinely. After these two, there are a trio of options we are less keen on in Deebo Samuel, Drake London, and Ladd McConkey. The story with all of them is really the same. None of them get enough volume to really make them worth your while in this spot. Deebo is going to have to contend with the return of McCaffrey and is reliant on breaking a long catch and run to pay off. London is returning from a hip pointer and we have been talking for weeks about how reliant he is on TDs to pay things off. And McConkey has been wholly mediocre with the exception of one explosion of a week when he had a long 60-yard catch and run TD that he has not replicated. All three are easy fades for us as a result. If doing so, we have to round out our optimal section with a couple more options. Noah Brown is the optimal value of the week. He has emerged as the WR2 in Washington and has posted 16.3 and 11.0 fantasy points over the last two weeks. He has received 6 targets in each of the games and makes for a strong value consideration this Sunday. Lastly, you can feel justified in selecting one of Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams. On a large slate, we would most likely not pick both but the matchup is good enough that we can expect one of them to pop. Our lean goes to Wilson as he now has 8+ targets in all three games since the arrival of Adams and is averaging close to 20 fantasy points per game over that span. You can’t go wrong with either though.
In tournaments, Justin Jefferson is our clear top target. It is interesting that both Darnold and Jones are projected to be quite chalky at their positions but Jefferson is more expensive and therefore falling by the wayside a bit at WR. Jefferson is simply elite. He has scored 20+ fantasy points in all but two games this year and has gone over 22 fantasy points each of the last two weeks without scoring a TD. The Jags defense is horrible and allows the 4th-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. At lower ownership, this is a sublime spot for J-Jettas. Courtland Sutton stands out as another elite GPP option. He has racked up 21 targets over the last two weeks and is the clear favorite target of Bo Nix for Denver. He leads the Broncos with a 30% target share and sits 2nd in the NFL in targets over 20+ yards and red zone targets over the last two weeks as well. Denver is a 7.5-point underdog in this spot against the Chiefs so they are going to be passing the ball a ton. He is an elite value. George Pickens has been running about as poorly as anybody could run in the touchdown variance department the last few weeks as he should have been blowing the roof off of slates. Instead, he has been unable to get a foot down in the end zone multiple times, so here we are. The Commanders are egregiously bad defensively against opposing WR1s and he and Russ have been cooking ever since Wilson stepped into the starting QB role for Pittsburgh. We love the upside of Pickens in this spot. Lastly, Sterling Shepard is our top pivot off of the chalkier Noah Brown. It sounds like all of Evans, Godwin, and McMillan will be out once again for Tampa Bay. If that happens, Shepard will be one of their two primary receiving options left standing besides Otton. This is a game script that should see them have to throw to keep up with the Niners. He is questionable so we will have to monitor his availability, but when Tampa had to play hurry-up, he caught three balls on one drive. If they fall behind and spend the second half chasing, we could see a high ceiling for Shep.
The tight end position is pretty cut and dry for us this week. There are two options, Travis Kelce and Cade Otton, that are head and shoulders above the field for us. Thanks to injuries on both of their teams, they are the clear top options and both have been getting peppered with targets the last two weeks with Kelce seeing a wild 28 and Otton at 21. Neither comes off the field much at all and you cannot go wrong slotting in either of them to your lineups. Options like Taysom Hill and Will Dissly are going to garner ownership, but we don’t think you need to go there for value. Hill is really dependent on TDs to pay off his value. While he got one last week, the touches aren’t there to really have him smash without them, making us not love him at elevated ownership. Dissly is cheap but came crashing back to earth last week. In GPPs, Trey McBride has been cooking for the Cardinals and is a great pivot off the chalkier Kelce and Otton in his price range. Zach Ertz had a down game last week but easily could be the second-best receiving option for the Commanders (ahead of Noah Brown) at a bargain price point. And lastly, the Bills are going to be without a number of receiving options in their game and Dalton Kincaid has started to see more targets of late, up to a season-high 10 last time out. He is a strong GPP pivot in this spot as well.
Lastly, the defenses are quite the interesting spot. We continue to just see the chalk defenses score TDs at an alarming rate that has zero to do with the thesis of why people are playing them. This week, there is one defense that is projected to be absurdly chalky and projects as the overwhelming best value…and we don’t get it. The Chicago Bears are facing the Patriots this week and are going to be stupidly chalky. In cash games, you pretty much have to play them. However, in GPPs, this is one of the easiest fades of the season as Maye has looked far more competent than Brissett. In tourneys, we absolutely love paying up per usual. The LA Chargers are facing Will Levis and the Titans. Levis loves to throw picks with the best of them and this is a great spot to attack him again. Lastly, the Minnesota Vikings are facing Mac Jones with their exotic blitz packages set to twist his mind into a pretzel. Turnovers could be plentiful here as a result and we love both of these spots. Best of luck this Sunday!