You currently can find Arizona for -115 odds on DraftKings. We like them to -135.
Andrew Heaney will be on the hill for the Rangers and he has barely pitched in the last month. Heaney has started two games in the postseason and neither of them has gone well. He allowed a run on two hits while striking out just one over 3.2 innings of work against Baltimore and then got pulverized by Houston to the tune of three runs on four hits in 0.2 innings of work. He has exceeded 56 pitches in an outing just once since September 10th so his leash is going to be quite short. The final issue here is that his numbers are horrendously aligned with Arizona. Righties have smashed his heater with a .240 xISO against the pitch and the Diamondbacks are loaded with hitters that crush the pitch. Our top option tonight is easily Tommy Pham. Pham crushes lefty fastballs with a .372 xISO/.498 xwOBA against the pitch. Outside of Pham, we love Christian Walker (.323/.421), Lourdes Gurriel (.200/.387), and Gabriel Moreno (.191/.421). This is simply a very poor spot for Heaney and we fully expect the Diamondbacks to strike early and often against him.
On the other side, the Rangers offense is in a less than ideal spot. They are without the services of their hottest hitter in Adolis Garcia. Players will also be in roles they are not accustomed to (Jung hitting out of the five hole for example). And, oh by the way, they are going against a bullpen start which is actually a decent enough idea as it will allow them to match up quite well with each individual hitter as the game goes along. At essentially even odds, the Diamondbacks have enough in their favor to jump on board. It does not hurt that they have been elite at playing from behind in series thus far. We love the chances for them to level this thing up at 2-2 heading into Game 5!