Optimal Plays: Aberg, Svensson, Thompson, Tarren, Kim, Wu
GPP Plays: Young, Ghim, Riley, Gotterup, Eckroat, Gordon, Martin
After a week off, we are right back at it in the fall swing with the World Wide Technology Championship. We get the first look at the Tiger Woods designed course, El Cardonal at Diamante. This is the first Woods’ design course to host a PGA Tour event. Looking at the course, there is a lot of room OTT allowing the players who have some distance to be able to bomb it out there.
One of the first guys who stands out as a fit for this course is Ludvig Aberg. Not only can he bomb it off the tee where he ranks 7th, he can also capitalize on his approaches, ranking 2nd in BoB. Aberg has also played well so far this fall swing, where he finished 2nd at the Sanderson Farms and 13th at the Shriners. Although he is priced pretty high this week, there is plenty of value to be found allowing you to fit him into your lineups.
If you are looking for more of a pivot at the top end of pricing, Cameron Young has the OTT prowess to find success at this course. He also projects to come in at half the ownership of Aberg at the top. Young did not have the sophomore campaign that many anticipated after an electric rookie year, but he showed the upside that he has on a week to week basis throughout the year. Where Young really makes his money is his distance off the tee, as he is one of the top ranked golfers in total driving amongst this field. He also ranked top-20 in Birdie or Better Gained, Strokes Gained Putting, and Proximity from 200+ yards. If anyone can take advantage of the par 5s and the drivable par 4s, Cam Young is your guy to look at in GPP formats.
If you drop a tier down into the $9k range, our team has a clear favorite option in Adam Svensson. Svensson comes in ranked top-10 in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Proximity from 200+ yards, and Opportunities Gained. He also ranks top-20 in Strokes Gained Approach and Birdie or Better Gained. We have seen Svensson make the cut in nine straight events dating back to July, and he has gained strokes T2G in all of these outings. With the putter having made a solid turn gaining strokes in four of the last five events on US soil, we believe Svensson is poised to contend this week.
Looking to find value, you can start right at $7,600 with Callum Tarren. Tarren comes into the week making all four cuts so far this fall swing, including a 7th place finish at the Fortinet. Tarren also pops in our model this week, checking almost all the boxes over the last 24 rounds. He ranks 7th in Approach, 2nd in BS, 5th in Driving Distance, and 13th in BoB.
One guy that we like who is priced right next to Tarren would be Doug Ghim, who has been very strong over his last 24 rounds, ranking top-10 in Opportunities Gained and Strokes Gained T2G. He also ranks top-20 in Strokes Gained Approach and Proximity from 150-175 yards. Where Ghim falls a bit short in comparison to Tarren would be his OTT play, as he ranks outside the top half of the field in Driving Distance. Ghim should be able to find the wide fairways here, and if he can turn the putter around, we believe this is a decent bounce back spot for him coming off of back to back missed cuts.
One final option in this mid 7k range that our projections and model both are in line on would be Michael Kim, who has been playing well during the fall, making three straight cuts and racking up a top-5 and top-20 finish. He has also been lights out with his irons gaining over four strokes in two of the last three tournaments. Kim ranks top-10 in Opportunities Gained, and top-30 in Strokes Gained Approach, Around the Green, Tee to Green.
If you are trying to find a lower owned mid priced guy this week, you can look no further than Chris Gotterup. He is one of the longest guys off the tee at this tournament ranking 2nd over the last 24 rounds to go with 33rd in BS and 34th in Putting. Although he comes with some risk, he is expected to be about 8% owned and provides a ton of upside if he gets his irons going.
As far as deeper value plays around/under 7k, our projections really like Austin Eckroat, Will Gordon, Robby Shelton, Brandon Wu, Ben Martin, and Carson Young. Consider these options very solid if trying to jam in two studs, or even if you start with one of the two expensive options and pair them with Svensson in the 9k range.
Conclusion: Our optimal lineups on this slate start with Aberg as your stud, and then a jump down to one of Svensson/Thompson. If you want to pivot up top, we would take the massive ownership discount on Cam Young over Aberg and stick with the more optimal plays in the $9k/$8k range. For value, our top overall option is Callum Tarren, with Michael Kim being the next best option to slot into your lineups. In GPPs, we like the listed value plays above, with Wu and Eckroat grading the best when we look at our model and projections. We also believe that to get unique you can take a flier on the youngster in Gotterup, as he has flashed upside in his limited opportunities on tour.